Physical Markets Weekly: Freight Peaks, Hormuz Risk Fractures Trade Flows and Urea Rebounds

Physical commodity markets spent the week separating two concepts that are often treated as the same thing: available supply and commercially usable supply.

Middle East producers continued to place crude into the market. Saudi Arabia expanded use of the East-West system, UAE and other regional producers sold substantial spot volumes, Iraq continued supplying Asian buyers and China absorbed more Russian crude as Iranian availability fell. Yet the physical cost of moving those barrels remained prohibitive. Strait of Hormuz traffic fell sharply again, vessel attacks intensified, inside-Persian-Gulf freight retained a large premium over Gulf of Oman loading positions and clean tanker rates reached new records.

That combination pushed crude differentials lower even while outright freight stayed historically high. Middle East cash premiums weakened through the week. West African, Latin American and North Sea grades also corrected as buyers increasingly priced the delivered barrel, not the FOB barrel. In several markets, the commodity itself was available — but the transportation system was too expensive to clear it efficiently.

Refined products showed the same distinction. European diesel and jet remained structurally tight even as strategic inventories were released and Russia partially reopened diesel exports. China resumed product exports after Golden Week, but quota limits and tanker scarcity restricted how quickly barrels could reach destination markets. Singapore even flipped into a net gasoil importer during the week despite stronger Chinese flows, illustrating how freight can strand regional supply.

Fertilizers moved in the opposite direction. India’s IPL tender initially appeared capable of resetting global urea values sharply lower, with bids around the mid-$350s/t CFR. But producers refused the implied Chinese FOB netbacks, India secured only a fraction of its intended volume, and the market reversed higher. Egyptian and Algerian urea prices rose sharply, while European gas costs moved to fresh recent highs.

The central physical-market signal is therefore broader than oil:

supply exists, but logistics, route risk and producer economics are determining whether that supply can actually clear.

Market at a Glance

• Hormuz security deteriorated again. Identified transits fell to only 12 vessels on October 14, the lowest since August 16, while the IMO recorded 11 ship attacks in the Strait during October 8–14.
• Middle East crude flows weakened sharply in the second week of October. Crude and condensate exports through Hormuz fell from 18.62 million b/d in the first week to 11.97 million b/d in the second.
• Middle East producers responded with rerouting and aggressive pricing. Saudi Arabia expanded East-West pipeline use, UAE producers sold close to 20 million barrels in one tender cycle and regional OSPs were cut.
• Dubai physical strength faded. The Platts Dubai cash-futures premium fell for six consecutive sessions to $4.83/b by October 16, from $9.78/b at the start of the week.
• Persian Gulf freight remained structurally detached from Gulf of Oman economics. PG–China VLCC freight stayed around w1,170–1,230 while Gulf of Oman indications remained mostly around w750–890.
• Dirty tanker freight showed the first broad signs of correction outside the Gulf. USGC, WAF and Aframax rates eased late in the week, although Black Sea Suezmax remained exceptionally strong on a heavier CPC program.
• Clean tanker freight reached record territory. AG–Japan LR2 reached w1,050 and Sohar–UKC diesel was heard near $16.5 million before the market began showing signs of supply response.
• The clean fleet is being structurally reduced. Roughly 100 LR2s were reported to have switched into dirty trading this year, tightening the pool available for products.
• Europe remains short of middle distillates. ARA diesel/gasoil stocks ended at 1.664 million mt, still 21% below year-ago levels.
• Jet remains tighter than diesel. ARA jet stocks recovered to 494,000 mt but remained critically low, with jet cracks still above diesel.
• Rhine logistics remain impaired. Kaub stayed around low-double-digit centimetres, contributing to inland supply friction and even prompting Switzerland to release jet stocks to protect Zurich Airport supply.
• China is exporting again, but freight is blocking efficient redistribution. Singapore became a net gasoil importer as regional barrels were described as “stuck” because of vessel scarcity and high freight.
• Russia partially reopened diesel exports, but current volumes remain far below normal. Weekly exports were still near record lows before a modest rebound in the second half of the period.
• Urea reversed sharply higher. IPL secured only about 410,000 mt of a 1.7 million mt target after producers rejected low netbacks.
• Egypt granular urea rose to $535/t FOB by week-end, while Algerian business was heard at $530/t FOB and Brazil moved into the $480s/t CFR.
• European gas strengthened materially, with Dutch TTF reaching around €88.60/MWh by October 16.

Crude Oil: More Spot Supply, Less Pricing Power

The crude market entered the week with an apparent contradiction.

Middle East supply was being actively offered, but physical differentials were weakening.

At least 12 million barrels across six VLCCs were heard allocated to Chinese refiners for November, while separate market indications suggested a major Middle East producer had sold large volumes to China, India, South Korea and Japan in the prior cycle. UAE producers then sold close to 20 million barrels in the October 14 tender, including Upper Zakum and Das Blend to North Asian and Indian refiners.

Under normal freight conditions, that level of spot demand would support regional differentials.

Instead, the opposite happened.

QatarEnergy reduced November OSP differentials by $3/b. Kuwait Petroleum cut November Asia-bound KEC by $4/b to a $6.75/b discount to Oman/Dubai. Iraq also reduced November OSPs, with Basrah Medium set at a $2.80/b discount and Basrah Heavy at a $5.80/b discount to Oman/Dubai.

The decline was not primarily a signal that the region suddenly had too much crude.

It was a signal that the cost of transporting the crude was consuming the premium buyers were willing to pay at origin.

By October 16, the Platts Dubai cash-futures premium had fallen for six consecutive sessions to $4.83/b, less than half the $9.78/b premium recorded at the beginning of the week.

That is a significant shift in physical market structure.

The barrel remains valuable.

The loading location has become expensive.

Hormuz: Export Capacity and Transit Risk Are Moving in Opposite Directions

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers continued building alternatives to direct Hormuz exposure.

Saudi Arabia was reported to be using the East-West pipeline near 5.8 million b/d after repairs, with plans to add another 1.2 million b/d by temporarily converting a gas pipeline for crude service. Some Asian term barrels were heard lifting from Red Sea locations, while Fujairah–Sohar STS structures continued to play a larger role.

But security conditions inside and around the Strait deteriorated.

Identified Hormuz transits fell to 12 ships on October 14, the lowest level since August 16. The IMO recorded 11 ship attacks during October 8–14, including the loss of the container ship GFS Pride. The supplied reports put the war-to-date total at 113 attacked vessels and 24 seafarer fatalities.

The weekly flow data are even more important than the daily traffic count.

During the first week of October:

• crude and condensate exports through Hormuz averaged 18.62 million b/d, around 98% of the pre-war total;
• refined product exports averaged 3.57 million b/d, around 51% of pre-war levels.

In the second week:

• crude and condensate exports fell to 11.97 million b/d;
• refined product exports fell to 2.52 million b/d.

This is not a stable normalization pattern.

It is a supply chain oscillating between high-throughput windows and severe disruption.

That instability is exactly why freight, insurance and routing premiums remain embedded even when headline export volumes occasionally recover.

Persian Gulf vs Gulf of Oman: Route Geography Still Sets the Price

The clearest physical signal remained the freight gap between loading inside the Persian Gulf and loading outside it.

At the beginning of the week, PG–China VLCC freight was assessed around w1,230, while Gulf of Oman indications were roughly w750–890.

By October 16, PG–China remained around w1,200, with inside-Gulf indications as high as w1,400, while Gulf of Oman remained around w750–800.

A confirmed November 1 PG–East VLCC trade was reported at w1,423, potentially including additional war-risk costs.

The spread is not a normal regional freight differential.

It is the market price of crossing the risk zone.

Charterers increasingly responded by using:

• Fujairah and Sohar STS;
• West Coast India transfers;
• Gulf of Oman shuttle structures;
• Red Sea liftings;
• smaller vessel combinations.

Clean-product charterers were reported to favour a shuttle model in which a controlled vessel moved product through Hormuz before transferring it to another ship outside the high-risk zone.

This matters beyond freight.

Once route access becomes a tradable input, the crude or product price alone no longer describes the market.

Dirty Tankers: Peak Freight Is Beginning to Correct — Unevenly

The first half of the week still reflected extreme tanker scarcity.

Gulf of Oman–Far East VLCC freight reached an all-time high around $167.65/mt on October 12. West African and US Gulf routes also remained elevated, while Black Sea Suezmax freight continued above w1,100.

By the end of the week, some segments had begun to soften.

Gulf of Oman–Far East eased to around $155.74/mt by October 15.

USGC–UK Continent Aframax fell to $163.88/mt, down almost $36/mt week on week.

USGC–China VLCC slipped to around $69.5 million lump sum.

WAF–UK Continent Suezmax fell toward w902.5.

West of Suez Aframax rates weakened broadly.

But the correction is not uniform.

Black Sea Suezmax remains exceptionally firm because the November CPC program is heavier. CPC Blend loadings are expected around 1.5–1.7 million b/d, requiring a large number of Suezmax stems. Owners retained leverage on those voyages even as other Atlantic routes softened.

The market is therefore moving from a synchronized freight shock toward a more selective structure:

routes with cargo scarcity are correcting; routes with vessel scarcity and concentrated programs are not.

Crude Differentials: Freight Is Still Repricing the FOB Barrel

The freight shock continued to push crude differentials lower across multiple basins.

West African medium-heavy grades remained under pressure. Around 21 Nigerian November-loading cargoes were still estimated unsold late in the week. Usan offers were heard near a $9/b discount to Dated Brent, while earlier-week trades in heavy African grades cleared at much deeper discounts.

Latin American barrels also weakened.

Guyana’s December export program reached a record 34 million barrels, increasing pressure on FOB equivalents just as Atlantic freight remained elevated. Canadian heavy crude remained weak, with WCS Hardisty widening to around a $26.45/b discount to WTI CMA, its weakest level since January 2023.

North Sea crude showed the same mechanism from the opposite direction.

Earlier in the week, Forties and WTI Midland differentials reached record or near-record levels because nearby supply was valuable and long-haul alternatives were expensive. But as the week progressed and freight began to ease, buyers resisted the elevated premiums. Late-November WTI Midland arriving into Europe was heard near $5/b over Dated Brent or lower, versus offers above $20/b earlier in the cycle.

The correction confirms a broader rule:

when freight rises faster than refinery value, origin differentials must fall. When freight eases, the replacement barrel regains competitiveness and local premiums lose support.

Europe Is Becoming the Residual Destination for Atlantic Crude

One of the most important commercial consequences of the freight structure is the redirection of Atlantic crude.

Asian buyers have little incentive to pull incremental WTI Midland or West African barrels when VLCC freight is close to record territory and prompt crude remains backwardated.

The supplied market commentary explicitly noted that expensive freight was reducing the pull to Asia and pointing more Atlantic volume toward Europe.

That has two consequences.

First, Europe receives more replacement crude just as its own refinery margins are compressing.

Second, Asian refiners become more dependent on Middle East barrels, even though those barrels themselves carry a route premium if loaded inside the Gulf.

This is why the market can simultaneously show:

• weaker Atlantic crude differentials;
• weaker Middle East spot differentials;
• historically high tanker freight;
• and still-tight prompt refinery economics for specific products.

The common driver is delivered cost.

Refining: Freight Has Become a Margin Input

The IEA’s October outlook captured the structural pressure directly.

Global refinery runs were estimated at a seasonal low of 81.3 million b/d in October, with 2026 average runs down materially from the prior year. The supplied report summarized the IEA conclusion clearly: record freight and crude costs had crushed margins in Europe and Asia, while discounted feedstocks supported US margins.

Northwest European Forties cracking netback margins had fallen to around $18.62/b by October 13, roughly two-thirds below the September peak.

Singapore margins were also reported down by approximately $7–15/b month on month, with escalating Middle East VLCC freight a major contributor.

This is a critical shift.

Refinery economics are no longer being determined only by:

crude price → product yield → product crack.

The new equation is increasingly:

crude price + route premium + freight + financing time + product freight = refinery margin.

When the transport inputs become volatile enough, they can dominate the processing margin.

Clean Tankers: Record LR Economics Finally Trigger a Supply Response

Clean tanker freight reached another extreme this week.

At the beginning of the period, AG–Japan LR1 was assessed around w980, while LR2 reached w1,015. By October 14–15, LR1 reached w1,000 and LR2 w1,050.

Sohar–UKC diesel on LR2 was heard near $16.5 million, a historic high.

The underlying structural issue is fleet migration.

Market participants estimated that roughly 100 LR2s have switched into dirty trading this year. That removed clean capacity precisely when refined-product trade routes became longer and more fragmented.

But this week also produced the first serious signs of a corrective response.

Charterers began:

• downsizing LR cargoes into MRs;
• splitting stems;
• shifting to shuttle/STS structures;
• withholding cargoes rather than accepting peak freight;
• waiting for additional early-November tonnage.

By October 16, LR2 rates had eased to around w1,025, and brokers said the previous record highs were unlikely to repeat immediately as supply increased.

The clean tanker market has therefore entered the same phase dirty freight entered earlier:

extreme freight is beginning to destroy demand and attract/reorganize vessel supply.

Diesel: Strategic Supply Is Rising, Structural Supply Is Still Tight

Diesel remained one of the most important physical markets of the week.

The IEA estimated that combined Middle East and Russian gasoil exports fell more than 60% year on year in September. Combined net exports from those two supply regions fell by around 1.3 million b/d to 820,000 b/d.

US and Chinese export growth was not enough to offset that loss.

OECD gasoil inventories had already fallen counter-seasonally, and European diesel stocks remained low.

ARA diesel and gasoil inventories ended the week around 1.664 million mt, only slightly higher week on week but still 21% below the prior year.

Policy supply is increasing.

Russia partially lifted its diesel export ban on October 10. The US sanctions waiver allows transactions in Russian-origin diesel through April 2027. Russian officials discussed potential exports of 300,000 mt in October, 500,000 mt in November and higher volumes later if refinery operations normalize.

The IEA also confirmed roughly 331 million barrels had already been released under the March collective action, with around 100 million barrels remaining and more than 20 million barrels of diesel expected to be released as quickly as possible.

But the physical market has not yet returned to normal.

Russian weekly diesel exports remained at only 69,000 mt in the week ended October 8 before rebounding to around 152,000 mt during October 9–16.

The key distinction is again between announced supply and executable supply.

Europe has more potential diesel supply than it had two weeks ago, but the replacement system still depends on refineries, sanctions permissions, vessel availability and functioning inland logistics.

Jet Fuel: The Tightest Part of the European Barrel

Jet remained tighter than diesel through the week.

European refineries had maximized diesel production for roughly two months, leaving jet yields comparatively low. Market commentary suggested materially higher jet production would not arrive until November.

ARA jet inventories rose from 479,000 mt to 494,000 mt, but were still described as critically low and remained dramatically below year-ago levels.

Jet CIF Northwest Europe ended around $1,596.50/mt, with a premium of roughly $184.25/mt over ICE LSGO and a crack of about $87.28/b versus Dated Brent.

The operational tightness was visible beyond price.

Switzerland temporarily authorised the release of jet stocks to protect Zurich Airport supply because rail delays and low Rhine water were disrupting deliveries.

That is a direct example of logistics becoming a supply variable.

There may be product in the regional system.

But if it cannot reach the airport, it is not economically equivalent to available stock.

Rhine: Logistics Stress Persists Even as Water Levels Improve Marginally

Rhine conditions remained critical through most of the week.

Kaub was reported around 12 cm on October 14, 11 cm on October 15, with only limited recovery expected.

These levels continue to constrain barge payloads and inland movement.

The immediate implications extend beyond diesel:

• heating oil demand is rising seasonally;
• jet deliveries depend partly on inland rail/barge infrastructure;
• naphtha and feedstock flows remain exposed;
• inland price signals can diverge from ARA inventory data.

ARA naphtha inventories increased sharply by 71,000 mt to 326,000 mt, but remained far below the 562,000 mt recorded a year earlier.

The inventory recovery therefore improves the buffer without removing the logistics risk.

China: Export Recovery Meets Vessel Scarcity

China generated one of the most important cross-market contradictions of the week.

September refined-product exports reached a 45-month high of 7.16 million mt, up 19.2% month on month and 39.3% year on year.

China also resumed gasoline, gasoil and jet exports after Golden Week.

Yet October export availability remains more limited than September because the latest quota batch was only around 4.5 million mt, well below pre-holiday expectations near 8 million mt.

At the same time, tanker availability remained constrained.

By the week ended October 14, Singapore flipped into a net gasoil importer, with inflows rising more than fivefold to 255,694 mt. China was the largest supplier at 102,512 mt.

The market explanation was direct: regional barrels were “stuck” because freight was high and vessel availability limited.

Singapore middle-distillate stocks rose 10.72% week on week to 10.38 million barrels, close to a six-month high.

That is not simply a bearish inventory build.

It is partly evidence of inefficient regional distribution.

Fuel Oil: HSFO Holds Relative Strength as Arbitrage Capacity Shrinks

Fuel oil remained split between a relatively stronger HSFO structure and weaker LSFO premiums.

Singapore 380 CST HSFO cracks strengthened through much of the week, while the LSFO-HSFO spread narrowed sharply.

Singapore heavy-distillate inventories fell for a sixth consecutive week to around 18.04 million barrels, with no European imports for a second consecutive week and no Russian flows for a fifteenth week.

In Europe, elevated dirty tanker freight continued to hinder arbitrage. Americas flows were uneconomic, while around 600,000 mt of VLSFO was expected to move east from Europe during October.

The physical signal is similar to crude:

a wide regional price spread does not guarantee an arbitrage if the ship consumes the spread.

Urea: India Tried to Reset the Market — Producers Refused

The fertilizer market produced the clearest reversal of the week.

India’s IPL tender initially appeared strongly bearish.

Counterbids were set at:

• $352.10/t CFR east coast;
• $356.25/t CFR west coast.

Those levels implied Chinese FOB netbacks around $320–325/t, substantially below the pre-Golden-Week market.

But Chinese producers resisted.

Instead of accepting the lower netback, sellers held closer to $340–350/t FOB.

The result was decisive.

IPL sought up to 1.7 million mt.

It secured only about 410,000 mt:

• 350,000 mt west coast at $356.25/t CFR;
• 60,000 mt east coast at $352.10/t CFR.

The tender therefore failed to establish the low bids as the new global clearing price.

Once that became clear, international values rebounded sharply.

North Africa Urea: Price Discovery Shifted Back to Producers

Egyptian granular urea moved from around $480/t FOB early in the week to as high as $535/t FOB by October 16.

Algerian business was heard around $530/t FOB.

Brazil moved into the $480s/t CFR, with offers pushing into the $490s.

US forward barge prices also strengthened.

The move was reinforced by higher European gas costs.

Dutch TTF reached approximately €88.60/MWh by October 16, the highest level since the current conflict began according to the supplied data.

The urea market therefore moved through three phases in one week:

1. India published low clearing signals. 2. Producers rejected the implied netback. 3. Replacement values moved back toward producer economics.

That is a genuine physical-market repricing.

The marginal buyer tried to reset the supply curve lower and failed.

Middle East Urea: Logistics Remain a Hidden Constraint

At least two non-Iranian urea vessels were reported leaving the Middle East Gulf during the week after a period of limited movement.

That is an improvement.

But the broader shipping environment remains difficult.

Clean tanker and crude freight are not directly interchangeable with dry fertilizer freight, but the underlying route-risk environment affects:

• vessel willingness;
• insurance;
• port scheduling;
• Gulf transit timing;
• delivered replacement economics.

The resumption of individual cargoes therefore should not be interpreted as full normalization of Gulf fertilizer exports.

The more important question is whether regular departures can be sustained while Hormuz transit counts remain unstable.

Key Physical Market Signals

• Hormuz traffic: fell to 12 identified transits on October 14, the lowest since August 16.
• Hormuz security: 11 vessels attacked during October 8–14 according to the IMO data cited in the supplied reports.
• Middle East crude: producer supply remains available, but spot differentials and OSPs are weakening under freight pressure.
• Dubai structure: cash premium fell for six consecutive sessions to $4.83/b by October 16.
• PG vs Gulf of Oman: the inside-Gulf freight premium remains one of the clearest measures of route risk.
• Dirty freight: broad correction has started in Atlantic/Aframax routes, but Black Sea Suezmax remains tight on CPC demand.
• Atlantic crude: West African, Guyanese, Canadian and late-November WTI Midland differentials remain under pressure from delivered economics.
• Clean freight: LR2 reached record levels before showing the first sustained easing signal.
• Fleet structure: roughly 100 LR2s reportedly moved into dirty service this year, reducing clean capacity.
• European diesel: inventories remain 21% below year-ago levels despite policy-led supply relief.
• European jet: stocks improved but remain critically low; jet still commands a clear premium over diesel.
• Rhine: inland logistics remain constrained by extremely low water levels.
• China products: exports resumed, but quota limits and vessel scarcity continue to restrict regional redistribution.
• Singapore gasoil: net-import status and higher stocks show barrels accumulating where ships are available rather than necessarily where demand is strongest.
• Fuel oil: Asian HSFO remains relatively supported while arbitrage is constrained by freight.
• Urea: India secured only 410,000 mt against a 1.7 million mt target.
• China urea: producers refused $320–325/t FOB-equivalent netbacks.
• Egypt urea: rose to $535/t FOB by week-end.
• Gas: TTF around €88.60/MWh strengthens European nitrogen replacement costs.

What to Watch Next

1. Hormuz transit consistency

The key signal is not one high-volume day. The market needs several consecutive days of normal commercial tanker traffic without attacks before the route premium can materially compress.

2. PG–China versus Gulf of Oman freight

The spread remains the most direct real-time indicator of how much risk the market assigns to inside-Gulf loading. A durable narrowing would matter more than a one-day drop in flat freight.

3. Dubai cash-futures premium

The decline from almost $10/b to below $5/b suggests the Middle East physical market is losing scarcity premium even while logistics remain expensive. A further decline would indicate that delivered demand is weakening faster than route constraints.

4. Black Sea Suezmax availability

The November CPC program is large enough to keep this segment structurally tighter than other Atlantic routes. Freight could remain elevated even if VLCC and Aframax markets continue correcting.

5. LR2 supply in early November

More open LR2 positions could finally break record clean freight. If charterers continue downsizing cargoes into MRs, the correction may simply migrate pressure into smaller vessel classes.

6. Russian diesel export execution

The partial ban lift and sanctions waiver increase theoretical supply. Actual weekly loadings will show whether Russia can rebuild exports while refinery disruptions continue.

7. IEA diesel releases

More than 20 million barrels of diesel are expected to enter the market quickly. The destination and timing of those barrels will determine whether they relieve Europe structurally or only soften front-end pricing.

8. ARA diesel and jet inventories

Jet remains the tighter barrel. Watch whether refiners genuinely increase jet yield in November or continue prioritising diesel.

9. Rhine water levels

A meaningful recovery would improve inland distribution and reduce the gap between ARA stock levels and usable inland supply. Continued low water keeps Germany, Switzerland and other inland markets exposed.

10. Chinese October product exports

September exports were exceptionally high, but October quota availability is smaller. The relevant question is how much product actually loads after Golden Week and how much is delayed by freight.

11. Singapore middle-distillate inventories

A further build alongside net imports would indicate regional product is still being trapped by logistics rather than efficiently redistributed.

12. India’s next urea tender

Another Indian tender is expected within several weeks. The market will test whether India raises its clearing level or whether producers eventually move toward lower netbacks.

13. Chinese urea producer behaviour

The refusal to sell at $320–325/t FOB-equivalent levels drove this week’s rebound. Any change in Chinese producer discipline would immediately affect global pricing.

14. European gas

TTF has returned to levels high enough to matter materially for domestic ammonia and urea economics. Further gas strength would reinforce import dependence and support FOB North Africa.

The Bottom Line

The week did not resolve the commodity supply problem.

It changed the definition of the problem.

There is crude available in the Middle East.

There is WTI Midland available in the Atlantic.

China is exporting refined products again.

Russia is partially reopening diesel exports.

The IEA is releasing inventories.

Urea exists in China and the Middle East.

But the market is repeatedly showing that availability at origin is not the same as usable supply at destination.

For crude, freight has become large enough to force OSP cuts and destroy FOB differentials.

For products, tanker scarcity and inland logistics are preventing regional inventory from moving efficiently.

For diesel, policy can release barrels faster than refiners and shipping systems can normalize replacement flows.

For jet, a modest inventory recovery has not removed the structural shortage created by refinery yield choices and distribution constraints.

For urea, the reverse is true: India proved that a low bid is not a clearing price if producers refuse to sell at the implied economics.

The physical-market equation is therefore increasingly:

origin supply + route access + vessel availability + freight + financing time + destination logistics = usable supply

And the week’s key signal is this:

the market is no longer rewarding commodity availability by itself. It is pricing the ability to execute the full supply chain.

Until transport and route risk normalize, crude and product differentials will continue absorbing freight shocks. Until producer economics normalize, low fertilizer bids will continue failing to clear enough supply.

That is the common theme across energy and fertilizers this week:

the marginal price is being set not by what exists, but by what can actually move.

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CommodityScope — Physical Market Intelligence

This report is an independent analytical synthesis of the physical commodity market developments contained in CommodityScope daily market digests for October 12–16, 2026. It focuses on physical supply, trade flows, freight, route access, inventories, refinery economics, fertilizers and logistics. Market levels are indicative observations for analytical context and are not firm offers or investment recommendations.

Sources: COM / DK / TK / EUM / APAG / Argus Nitrogen