CommodityScope Crude Delivered Cost Methodology

1. Scope

This document records Crude Delivered Cost methodology version 1.0 as applied to published modelled indicators. It does not retrospectively assign a new effective date to earlier publications. Parent document: CommodityScope Assessment & Publication Framework (/methodology/core).

Crude Delivered Cost is a model methodology, not an oil assessment family and not a tanker freight family. It reads published physical crude snapshots and published dirty tanker freight snapshots. It does not replace those assessments.

Published Indicative Delivered Cost

CommodityScope Modelled Indicators of indicative delivered cost for a defined crude grade, loading basis, destination region, vessel class and cargo size. Each published result is expressed in USD/bbl. The public label is Indicative Delivered Cost. It is not a published CIF, a named-port CIF, a firm commercial quotation, or a second headline assessment of the grade.

Outside this methodology

Physical crude assessments (/methodology/oil-products), dirty tanker freight assessments (/methodology/dirty-tanker), voyage TCE (/methodology/tce), clean tanker freight, tanker freight indices and destination-market crude quotations remain in their own families or model methodologies.

2. What Crude Delivered Cost 1.0 Is

Crude Delivered Cost 1.0 converts a published FOB crude assessment and a published dirty tanker freight snapshot into an indicative delivered-cost figure under a versioned route mapping.

One grade may have several delivery scenarios. Destination, vessel class and cargo size identify the scenario. A grade page shows one default scenario; the delivered-cost monitor presents the supported set. Selecting a loading month or cargo basis uses the published FOB snapshot that matches that scenario. A scenario is published only where a matching dirty tanker freight series is assigned and same-date inputs are available.

3. Calculation

For each published scenario on an assessment date, Crude Delivered Cost 1.0 calculates:

ocean freight (USD/bbl) = published freight (USD/mt) / stated bbl per mt

P = FOB + ocean freight + applicable war-risk premium + applicable route costs

Indicative Delivered Cost = P / (1 − 1.10 × 0.0005)

Insurance = 0.0005 × 1.10 × Indicative Delivered Cost. Because insurance is calculated on 110% of the final delivered value, the model solves this relationship algebraically using the divisor above.

FOB and ocean freight enter as published ranges where those ranges are available. Applicable war-risk premium and applicable route costs enter as same-date point values. Missing required inputs are not replaced by zero.

4. Same-Date Inputs

Crude Delivered Cost 1.0 publishes only where every required input is a published snapshot on the same assessment date.

Required inputs are the mapped FOB crude assessment, the mapped dirty tanker freight snapshot and, where the route mapping includes them, the Black Sea additional war-risk premium and the Turkish Straits delay-cost inputs. A later or earlier snapshot is not substituted. This is stricter than Voyage TCE bunker selection, which may use the latest marine-fuel assessment dated on or before the freight date.

If any required same-date input is unpublished, Indicative Delivered Cost is not published for that scenario and date. Missing inputs are not interpolated.

5. Crude Input

The crude input is the published USD/bbl Assessment Midpoint, and where written the CommodityScope Assessment Range, of the physical crude series mapped to that scenario on that date. Crude Delivered Cost 1.0 does not reassess the grade.

Where the series specification states that a published FOB value is a netback, that basis remains the series definition. The model reads the published snapshot. It does not relabel a netback as an observed loading-port transaction, and it does not reconstruct a destination-market quotation as CIF.

A change to the published crude midpoint or range is an Oil methodology or evidence change. It is not, by itself, a Crude Delivered Cost methodology change. The delivered-cost result for that date uses the crude snapshot as published.

6. Freight Input

The freight input is the published USD/mt Assessment Midpoint of the dirty tanker series assigned to that route mapping, on the same date, including the constructed freight range where written. Crude Delivered Cost 1.0 does not read clean tanker freight, voyage TCE, Worldscale points, lumpsum figures, index points or a previous freight assessment as a substitute.

Ocean freight in USD/bbl is the published USD/mt freight converted by the stated barrels-per-metric-ton factor for that mapping. Crude Delivered Cost 1.0 does not convert Worldscale into USD/mt.

A change to the published freight midpoint or range is a Dirty Tanker methodology or evidence change. It is not, by itself, a Crude Delivered Cost methodology change.

7. Conversion, War Risk and Route Costs

Each route mapping states a barrels-per-metric-ton conversion for the grade. That factor is a versioned model assumption on the mapping. It is not inferred from another grade and it is not used to normalise cargo size between the crude series and the freight series.

Where the mapping includes Black Sea additional war-risk premium, the model adds the published same-date premium in USD/bbl. Where the mapping does not include that premium, none is added and none is inferred.

Where the mapping includes Turkish Straits delay cost, the model adds the published same-date southbound delay multiplied by the published same-date Straits demurrage, converted into USD/bbl. Northbound delay is not used. Clean and dirty demurrage outside that mapped Straits cost do not enter. Unverified canal, port, carbon or security costs are not inferred.

8. Insurance Assumption

Base cargo insurance is a CommodityScope model assumption: 0.05% of an insured value equal to 110% of the modelled delivered result, applied as the divisor in Section 3. Low, mid and high scenarios each include their own insurance calculation.

The assumption is versioned. Version 1.0 was introduced on 17 September 2026. The assumption may be applied retrospectively to compatible historical inputs from 1 January 2026 when producing explicitly identified reconstructed or backfilled model snapshots. It must not be interpreted as an observed historical insurance quotation or as evidence that the model was published contemporaneously on those historical dates.

9. Route Mapping

Each scenario is a versioned route mapping between a crude loading basis and a dirty tanker freight series. Mapping quality describes that relationship. It is not an assessment state for the delivered-cost figure.

A published route basis is not converted into a published CIF because the destination may remain a region. A regional freight proxy is disclosed as a proxy. Oman and Murban remain separate mappings even where they share a regional freight series.

10. Scenarios and Cargo Basis

A future-loading FOB snapshot combined with current-date freight is a current-spot-freight scenario. It is not a forward freight commitment and it is not a named-voyage fixture.

Where a grade has separate FOB series by vessel class or cargo size, the model pairs that FOB snapshot with the matching freight mapping. Cargo basis and vessel class of the freight input must match the selected scenario.

No cargo-size normalisation is inferred between the crude series and the freight series. Destination-market crude quotations are separate series. They are not inputs to this model and they are not the Indicative Delivered Cost.

11. Modelled Range

Where the published FOB range and the published freight range are both available, Crude Delivered Cost 1.0 constructs a modelled delivered-cost range by converting freight into USD/bbl, adding the same-date extras, and applying the insurance assumption to each of low, mid and high.

That modelled range is a deterministic input scenario. It is not a bid/offer spread, a statistical confidence interval, or the CommodityScope Assessment Range of the crude or freight series. A full modelled range is unpublished where a required input range is missing, although the midpoint may remain published.

12. Publication and Historical Integrity

A snapshot is published only for a qualifying same-date combination of mapped inputs and an effective route mapping. Daily crude or freight cadence does not imply that an Indicative Delivered Cost result must exist on every business or calendar day.

Published results retain their assessment date, mapping version and methodology version. Later changes to mappings, conversion or the insurance assumption do not rewrite prior published values. Corrections preserve the audit history.

The change versus a previous published snapshot of the same mapping, crude series, pricing window, route version and insurance version is a computed statistic over that history.

13. Related Products

Crude Delivered Cost is not part of Oil Products Methodology or Dirty Tanker Freight Methodology.

Published crude and dirty tanker snapshots may be read as same-date inputs. A change to those methodologies that changes a published numeric is an Oil or Dirty Tanker methodology change. A change to Crude Delivered Cost mappings or assumptions must not be described as a crude assessment change or a tanker freight assessment change.

Voyage TCE does not enter this model. Tanker freight indices are calculated from published freight assessments, not from Indicative Delivered Cost.

14. Publication Boundary

Same-date alignment, route mappings, conversion, war-risk applicability, Straits delay-cost treatment, the insurance assumption and the delivered-cost formula are publication rules of this model. They are not applied to oil assessments, dirty tanker freight midpoints, voyage TCE, tanker freight indices, grain, fertilizers or dry freight.

15. Important Notice

Values published under this methodology are CommodityScope Modelled Indicators labelled Indicative Delivered Cost. They are analytical estimates for market-intelligence purposes, not bids, offers, fixtures or contractual settlement values, and they are not represented as a regulated benchmark.

Use is subject to the CommodityScope Assessment & Publication Framework and the CommodityScope Terms of Service.