CommodityScope Oil Products & Physical Crude Methodology

1. Scope

This document is the family methodology for Oil Products & Physical Crude, methodology version 1.0, as recorded on applicable published snapshots. Parent document: CommodityScope Assessment & Publication Framework (/methodology/core).

This methodology currently covers physical refined products, energy forwards and spreads where published as such, inventory series published under this methodology, and physical crude published as physical price series.

Family membership and publication type are separate. The same methodology may publish Indicative Assessments, supporting series and, where classified as such, Reference Market Series. The series specification states the publication class of the named series. Crude Delivered Cost is a separate model methodology and is not an Oil physical assessment.

Physical refined products

Spot assessments for defined product, location and delivery bases, including Singapore, Arab Gulf, Fujairah, NWE / ARA / Rotterdam, Mediterranean and West Africa series where published.

Forward and structure series

Tenor-specific forward and swap series, and defined market spreads, remain separate series. A forward tenor is not automatically equivalent to the physical spot assessment for the same commodity. Spreads follow their stated legs and sign convention.

Stocks and supporting series

Inventory and other supporting series published under this methodology remain distinct from a physical price assessment. Publication under this methodology does not convert stocks into an Indicative Assessment. Their public class is described in the Reference Series Publication Methodology (/methodology/reference).

Physical crude

Physical crude outright, differential and related crude series published as physical prices under this methodology, including listed derived-outright exceptions described in Section 8.

Outside this family

Grain, fertilizers, dirty and clean tanker freight, dry freight, voyage TCE and Crude Delivered Cost remain under their own family or model methodologies. A change to this Oil methodology does not change assessments published under those methodologies.

2. What Oil 1.0 Is

Oil 1.0 publishes a validated market level as the Assessment Midpoint on the defined series basis and assessment date, and constructs a separate CommodityScope Assessment Range around that level.

Listed related series may support the range. Physical crude keeps an immutable published basis after issue, with listed derived-outright exceptions.

3. Assessment Midpoint

For a physical price series, the Assessment Midpoint is the validated market level assigned to the defined series basis and assessment date.

That level is taken from the series-level market observation that CommodityScope has validated and assigned to the series for that date. Related series, previous assessments and range construction do not move the midpoint.

Validation, assignment to the defined market basis, publication and the CommodityScope range remain CommodityScope processes. The published series remains a CommodityScope Indicative Assessment, or the publication class stated on the series specification.

For forward series the midpoint is the validated published level of the selected tenor for that series. For stocks and other supporting series published under this methodology, the midpoint is the validated published value of that series.

4. Assessment Range

Where the series is a physical Indicative Assessment, Oil 1.0 publishes an Assessment Range around the midpoint. The range is CommodityScope’s estimate of uncertainty around that assessed level.

The range is not the day’s trading high and low, a quoted bid/offer spread, or an executable trading range. It is CommodityScope’s uncertainty interval around the Assessment Midpoint.

Range construction may use the previous published assessment, same-date listed related series that sit on the assessment basis, historical volatility of the CommodityScope midpoint series, quantile dispersion of the weighted supporting observations, the series liquidity profile, confidence scaling and tick snapping.

A related or previous value enters the range only after it is treated as being on the CommodityScope basis. A raw forward tenor or un-normalized related market does not pull the range across a different timing window.

The public CommodityScope Assessment Range applies only to physical Indicative Assessments under this methodology. Forward, spread and supporting series are not published with that public range product.

A change to published low or high is a methodology change even if the midpoint is unchanged.

5. Liquidity Profile and Tick

Each series has an Oil 1.0 liquidity profile used for range floors and scaling. The profile is family-owned. It is not a global market-quality score.

Tick size follows the published unit: USD/bbl series snap to 0.01; Oil energy series in USD/mt snap to 0.25. Published range bounds are snapped to that tick.

6. Confidence Classification

Where a range is published, Oil 1.0 may attach a Confidence Classification of High, Medium or Low. Confidence describes the support available to range construction: previous assessments and, where listed, related-market values. It is not a probability that physical cargo will trade at the midpoint.

7. Related Markets

Related series belong to this family methodology and are listed. Oil 1.0 maintains an explicit map of selected physical series to a same-unit related forward series. Only those listed pairs may contribute to range construction.

Related values may support range construction, validation and contextual evidence. They do not replace the Assessment Midpoint.

If a listed related series is used on a date, Oil may record that related-market evidence was used. That record does not change the midpoint.

A series without a listed related pair has no related-forward input to the Oil 1.0 range. Economically connected markets named in a series specification remain comparison markets unless they are listed in this related map.

8. Physical Crude

After publication, the stated basis of a crude snapshot is not reconstructed onto already published dates.

Where the series specification states that a published FOB value is a netback, that basis remains the series definition. Oil 1.0 does not relabel a netback as an observed loading-port transaction.

Where explicitly allowed, a derived outright value may be created from a listed relationship. The current listed exception is ESPO outright as published Dubai reference plus ESPO differential, on the same date, same close, same currency and unit, and matching calendar delivery month. A positive ESPO differential is added; a negative differential is subtracted. Direct outright observations take precedence. Unmapped strips, different closes, netbacks and delivery parity do not qualify. The listed relationship does not define a calendar roll and is not applied to other crude differentials.

ESPO outright = published Dubai reference + ESPO differential

This remains a listed relationship. A derived outright is published only under that listed relationship, not by traversing other market connections.

Benchmarks preserve their specific market type: futures settlements, cash references and physical dated values remain distinct. A benchmark plus its differential does not count as additional independent evidence where the corresponding outright market value is already available.

9. Observation Date

The assessment date is the market date of the snapshot. The observation date of an assigned input may be the same day or earlier. If that observation date is unknown, it is left blank rather than treated as same-date.

An earlier input observation date does not change the published midpoint, range, confidence or methodology version.

10. Cadence and Cutoff

Publication cadence is a series-profile fact (daily or weekly). Assessment cutoff, loading window and cargo size are series-specification facts where CommodityScope has issued them. They are not implied from this family methodology. A crude market close in the crude definition is the assessment close. It is not an information-receipt deadline unless a series specification also states a cutoff.

The assessment date is the market date reflected by the snapshot. It is distinct from the time at which the value becomes available in CommodityScope systems.

11. Important Notice

Oil Products & Physical Crude values published under this methodology are CommodityScope Indicative Assessments or the publication class stated on the series specification. They are analytical estimates for market-intelligence purposes, not bids, offers, executable quotations or contractual settlement values, and they are not represented as a regulated benchmark.

Use is subject to the CommodityScope Assessment & Publication Framework and the CommodityScope Terms of Service.