Oil rebounds. Dubai flips negative. Tanker rates collapse. European jet premiums surge.
The physical market is sending conflicting signals.
CRUDE | BRENT REBOUNDS
• Brent Jan: $95.82/b ↑$3.06 (+3.3%) • WTI Dec: $88.74/b ↑$2.21 • US crude stocks: 414.4m bbl ↑4.7m
⚠️ Dubai cash differential flipped to −$0.12/b — its first discount to futures since July 17.
FREIGHT | ATLANTIC SELLOFF
• PG → China VLCC: WS980 ↓30 • Gulf of Oman → East: WS310 ↓75 • WAF → East VLCC: WS290 ↓70 • Brazil → China VLCC: WS290 ↓60 • Black Sea → Med: WS440 ↓47.5
Inside-Gulf freight still carries a WS670 premium over Gulf of Oman.
DIESEL / JET | MARKET DIVERGENCE
European jet premiums surged:
• Jet CIF NWE premium: +$114/mt ↑$56.25 • ICE LSGO Dec: $1,249.75/mt ↓$28.75
Asia weakened:
• Singapore jet differential: −$1.83/b • Singapore gasoil differential: −$0.07/b, flipping negative.
BUNKERS
• Singapore VLSFO: $845/mt ↑$28 • Fujairah VLSFO: $834/mt ↑$24 • Rotterdam IFO 380: $547/mt ↓$8
UREA / GAS
Urea continues falling:
• Egypt FOB: $500/t ↓$5 • Middle East FOB: $415/t ↓$5 • Nigeria FOB: $450/t ↓$16 • Brazil CFR: $460/t ↓$5
Meanwhile, European gas surged:
TTF €93.40/MWh ↑7.8%
MARKET SIGNAL
🔺 Brent rebounds 3.3% 🔻 Dubai physical premium turns negative 🔻 VLCC freight continues collapsing 🔺 European jet premium nearly doubles 🔻 Urea weakens across major markets 🔺 TTF jumps 7.8%