CommodityScope Urea Delivered Cost Methodology

1. Scope

This document records Urea Delivered Cost methodology version 1.0 as applied to published modelled indicators. It does not retrospectively assign a new effective date to earlier publications. Parent document: CommodityScope Assessment & Publication Framework (/methodology/core).

Urea Delivered Cost is a model methodology, not a fertilizer assessment family and not a dry freight family. It reads published granular urea assessments and published urea freight assessments. It does not replace those assessments.

Published Indicative Delivered Cost

CommodityScope Modelled Indicators of indicative delivered cost for a defined granular urea loading basis, discharge region and freight lot. Each published result is expressed in USD/mt. The public label is Indicative Delivered Cost. It is a modelled stack, not a published CFR assessment and not a firm commercial quotation.

2. Calculation

For each published route mapping and assessment date, Urea Delivered Cost 1.0 calculates:

Indicative delivered cost = granular urea assessment midpoint + urea freight assessment midpoint

Both inputs are USD/mt. The freight lot stated on the route mapping is the voyage basis. The granular urea assessment is not resized to that lot. Insurance and discharge costs stay outside this model.

3. Same-Date Inputs

The granular urea assessment and the urea freight assessment must both be published for the same assessment date. A later or earlier assessment is not substituted. Where either input is unpublished for that date, Indicative Delivered Cost is not published for that scenario and date.

Published results retain their assessment date and methodology version. A later model version writes only dates that do not already have a result.

4. Route Mappings

Urea Delivered Cost 1.0 publishes these route mappings:

Where a published CFR Brazil granular urea assessment exists on the same date, it is displayed beside the Middle East, Nigeria and Baltic to Brazil scenarios. Where a published CFR Southeast Asia granular urea assessment exists on the same date, it is displayed beside the China to Southeast Asia scenario. Those CFR assessments are not inputs to the model.

5. Modelled Range

Where both inputs publish a low and a high, the modelled range is the sum of those lows and the sum of those highs. A missing range side on either input leaves that side of the modelled range unpublished. The modelled range is a deterministic input stack. It is not a bid/offer spread and it is not the CommodityScope Assessment Range of the urea or freight series.

6. Related Methodologies

Fertilizer assessments (/methodology/fertilizers) and dry freight assessments (/methodology/dry-freight) remain in their own families. Grain, crude delivered cost and voyage TCE are outside this model. Changing a published urea midpoint or freight midpoint is a change in that family. It is not, by itself, a Urea Delivered Cost methodology change. The result for that date uses the assessments as published.