Oil plunges. Tanker freight collapses. Egypt deepens fertilizer cuts.

Geopolitical risk premiums are fading — but physical supply disruptions remain.

CRUDE | SHARP SELLOFF

• ICE Brent Jan: $92.57/b ↓$5.75 (−5.9%) • WTI Dec: $86.85/b ↓$3.98 • Dated Brent CIF: $95.02/b ↓$5.30

US–Iran negotiations weighed on prices, while Hormuz recorded just 139 vessel transits last week — the lowest since early September.

TANKER FREIGHT | RATES COLLAPSE

• WAF → East VLCC: WS415 ↓85 • Brazil → China VLCC: WS390 ↓105 • WAF → UKC Suezmax: WS375 ↓25 • Black Sea → Med: WS605 ↓52.5 • Cross-Med MR: WS370 ↓50

Long tonnage lists and weak demand are putting charterers firmly in control.

DIESEL / JET

• ULSD CIF NWE: $1,311.25/mt ↓$36 • China: gasoil exports suspended • ARA jet inventories: 490kt ↑29% w/w • Jet CIF NWE premium: +$70.75/mt

Nearly 47% of Russian refining capacity is estimated to be offline, keeping supply risks elevated.

UREA | EGYPT CUTS DEEPER

Egypt's Mopco, Abu Qir and EFC increased production cuts from 20% to approximately 33%.

• Egypt FOB: $510–525/t • NOLA FOB: $427–429/st ↑$2.50

Around 340,000t of urea remained aboard six vessels behind Hormuz.

NATURAL GAS

TTF front-month: €81.70/MWh ↓5%

Down more than €20/MWh from the October 30 high.

MARKET SIGNAL

🔻 Brent loses 5.9% 🔻 Atlantic tanker freight falls sharply ⚠️ China halts gasoil exports 🔺 ARA jet stocks recover 29% ⚠️ Egypt deepens urea production cuts 🔻 European gas continues retreating