Egypt cut output. Urea prices still fell.

*Nitrogen focus*

Weak buying interest continues to outweigh production cuts.

UREA — BUYERS HOLD BACK

Egypt granular FOB: $510–525/t — midpoint ↓$12.50/t Middle East FOB: $435–445/t Nigeria FOB: $460–473/t Brazil CFR: $460–480/t

European buyers largely ignored Egypt’s 20% production cut, with traders reluctant to secure additional tonnage.

CHINA / NOLA

China prilled FOB: $338–345/t — midpoint ↓$1/t. NOLA FOB: $424–427/st — midpoint ↑$1.50/st.

The modest NOLA uptick came in an inactive session. Prices remain below mid-October’s $450/st, with imports accumulating and inland demand weak.

TTF front-month: €85.90/MWh ↓5.3% at 16:10 GMT, down from €103.94/MWh on October 30. Gas costs are easing, but remain elevated.

Five vessels carrying approximately 262kt of non-Iranian urea remained in the Middle East Gulf. Four vessels have departed since November 1; reported transit exemptions remain unsupported by evidence.

🔻 Urea weakens despite Egyptian production cuts. 🔻 European gas retreats from late-October highs. ⚖️ NOLA edges higher, but buying interest remains limited.

*Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.*