Freight is falling. Diesel supply risks remain.

Brent partially rebounded while Dubai weakened sharply. Brent Jan: $98.29/b ↑$3.67 · Dubai Jan: $92.85/b ↓$8.04 Dated Brent: $95.98/b ↓$0.18.

FREIGHT — CORRECTION DEEPENS

WAF → UKC Suezmax: WS430 ↓110 Black Sea → Med Suezmax: WS675 ↓67.5 Med → UKC Aframax: WS287.5 ↓135

Ample tonnage is putting charterers in control. But the Hormuz premium persists: PG → China VLCC assessed WS1190, against Gulf of Oman bids at WS595–600.

DIESEL — SUPPLY PRESSURE

Chinese refiners suspended gasoil exports to prioritise domestic demand. Jet and gasoline exports can continue. China’s gasoil stocks fell ~6% m/m to 10.48m mt, their lowest since January 2023.

US distillate inventories dropped 3.57m bbl to 99.26m bbl — the lowest since May 2003, and 12.3% below the five-year average.

BUNKERS — REGIONAL SPLIT

Delivered 0.5%S marine fuel: Singapore / Fujairah: $830/mt ↓$55 Rotterdam: $729/mt ↑$4 · Houston: $776/mt ↑$20.

Ammonia strengthened, but urea softened as offers struggled to attract business. Egypt urea FOB: $520/mt ↓$10 Algeria FOB: $536/mt ↓$10 NOLA November FOB: $420/st ↓$6.

🔻 Atlantic tanker rates are correcting sharply. ⚠️ Hormuz freight remains elevated. ⚠️ China’s gasoil export halt coincides with depleted US distillate stocks. 🔻 Urea softens while ammonia strengthens.

*Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.*