Crude broke lower while Hormuz kept its premium

Crude broke lower. Freight softened globally. European products followed. But Hormuz still trades at a major premium.

• ICE Brent Jan: $98.53/b ↓$5.07 • WTI Dec: $88.12/b ↓$7.97 • Dated Brent: $96.16/b ↓$9.04

Dubai Jan held firmer at $100.89/b.

Iranian crude imports into China collapsed to 275 kb/d in October — the lowest since the series began in 2022.

Dirty tanker markets softened sharply:

• PG → China VLCC: WS1200 • Gulf of Oman: WS610–650 • WAF → East: WS592.5 ↓35 • Black Sea → Med: WS742.5 ↓82.5 • WAF → Far East: $161.22/mt ↓34.7%

Yet inside-Hormuz freight still carries roughly a 2× premium versus Gulf of Oman levels.

Europe sold off with crude:

• NWE Jet FOB: $1,384.75/mt ↓$74 • ULSD FOB NWE: $1,344.75/mt ↓$68.25 • NWE Naphtha CIF: $870.25/mt ↓$32.75

Asia naphtha stayed structurally tight, with the cash differential reaching a 3-month high of $58/mt.

Renewed attacks have pushed roughly 47% of Russia’s >7 mb/d refining capacity offline, according to CERA estimates.

Russian diesel/gasoil exports to the Mediterranean were down 81.5% y/y in October.

UREA / GAS

Urea softened again:

• China FOB: $340–345/t • Egypt FOB: $530–540/t • Middle East FOB: $440–450/t • Brazil CFR: $465–475/t

TTF dropped to €85.54/MWh ↓6.6%, easing some pressure on European nitrogen economics.

🔻 Brent fell below $100/b 🔻 Dated Brent lost more than $9/b 🔻 Global tanker freight corrected sharply ⚠️ Hormuz premium remains structurally high 🔻 European products weakened with crude 🔻 TTF fell below €86/MWh