Dubai cash/futures premium collapsed from +$7.13/b to just +$0.30/b.

Crude collapsed. Dubai’s physical premium nearly disappeared. European products sold off hard.

But Hormuz freight is still refusing to normalize.

• Platts Dubai: $105.30/b ↓11% • Dated Brent: $108.49/b ↓$10.28 • ICE Brent Jan: $104.77/b ↓$12.87 • WTI Dec: $96.46/b ↓$7.66

The biggest signal:

Weak Asian demand, unsold cargoes and refinery run cuts are finally hitting Middle East physical pricing.

PG → China VLCC remains:

WS1215

Inside Gulf: WS1250–1300

Gulf of Oman: WS650–675

So crude prices are collapsing — but inside-Hormuz freight still trades at roughly 2× outside-Gulf levels.

Europe followed crude sharply lower:

• Naphtha CIF NWE: $924.50/mt ↓$80.50 • Gasoline FOB NWE: $1,042.50 ↓$118.25 • Jet FOB Med: $1,425.25 ↓$80.50 • ULSD FOB Med: $1,381.75 ↓$73.75 • ICE LSGO: $1,410/mt ↓$69

Yet ARA jet stocks remain at just 380kt — a 12-year low.

UREA / GAS

Egyptian producers confirmed a 20% urea production cut.

TTF fell around 8% to roughly €95/MWh, but European gas remains historically expensive.

Urea trade stayed quiet as crude and gas futures sold off.

🔻 Dubai physical premium collapsed to +$0.30/b 🔻 Brent and WTI sold off sharply ⚠️ Hormuz VLCC freight remains structurally elevated 🔻 European products followed crude lower ⚠️ ARA jet stocks remain at a 12-year low 🌾 Egypt cut urea output by 20%