Daily Market Brief — 30 Oct 2026

Hormuz risk is back in focus. Dubai rebounded, tanker premiums remain extreme, European jet stocks hit a 12-year low — and TTF moved above €103/MWh.

Dubai cash-futures premium jumped:

+$7.13/b ↑$2.06

ending five straight sessions of decline.

Hormuz traffic recovered to 26 vessels, but fresh attacks and disruption reports kept risk elevated.

PG → China VLCC: WS1215

Inside Gulf: WS1200–1450

Gulf of Oman: WS650–690

The inside-Hormuz freight premium remains massive.

North Sea physicals remain weak.

• Johan Sverdrup: −$0.79/b vs Dated • Forties heard near negative territory • Djeno: ~−$34.70/b vs Dated

December Johan Sverdrup supply is set to rise to 700kb/d, adding further pressure.

PRODUCTS — EUROPE TIGHTENS

ARA jet stocks collapsed:

380kt ↓17.6% w/w

→ lowest in 12 years

Naphtha stocks:

270kt ↓25.6% w/w

Fuel oil stocks also fell 18.1%.

Meanwhile:

• Jet CIF NWE: $1,585.50/mt • LSFO crack: $29.80/b — highest since July 2022 • Singapore–Rotterdam 0.5%S spread: $192.50/mt — widest on record

UREA / GAS

European gas moved sharply higher:

TTF: €103.54/MWh ↑~6%

Egypt is considering a 20% cut in fertilizer production from November.

Urea:

• Egypt FOB: $535–540/t • Middle East FOB: $445–455/t • Brazil CFR: $465–480/t • NOLA: $442/st

European nitrogen economics remain under severe pressure.

🔺 Dubai risk premium rebounded sharply ⚠️ Hormuz freight remains structurally elevated 🔻 Atlantic crude differentials remain weak ⚠️ ARA jet stocks hit a 12-year low 🔺 LSFO crack reached its strongest level since 2022 🔺 TTF broke above €103/MWh