Daily Market Brief — 19 Oct 2026
Freight is easing outside the Gulf. Dubai differentials keep weakening. European products are firmer. China is drawing crude stocks again.
The physical market is starting to rebalance — but Hormuz still carries a heavy premium.
Dubai weakened for a seventh consecutive session.
• Cash Dubai differential: +$3.83/b ↓$1.00 • Dec Brent–Dubai: +$0.18/b ↑$1.01 • Middle East crude exports: 11.9 mb/d vs 15.0 mb/d in September
Brent–Dubai has now moved back above zero for the first time since August territory.
At the same time, Basrah remains aggressively discounted on FOB basis, while delivered-China economics still reflect high freight.
Security risk remains embedded in freight.
Four vessel attacks were reported between Oct 16–18.
Hormuz transits:
• Oct 16: 25 • Oct 17: 15 • Oct 18: 23
PG → China VLCC remains:
WS1200 | $249.48/mt
Inside Persian Gulf: WS1200–1300
Gulf of Oman: WS750–770
The premium for loading inside the Gulf remains extreme.
ATLANTIC FREIGHT — CORRECTION CONTINUES
Outside the Gulf, tanker rates are moving lower.
• WAF → East VLCC: WS700 ↓25 • Brazil → China VLCC: WS615 ↓70 • USGC → UKC VLCC: $32.5m ↓$3.5m • Vancouver → China: $14.5m ↓$1m
USGC HSFO Aframax freight also fell sharply to:
$136.57/mt
That is down $61.97/mt w/w.
The freight correction is now broadening across the Atlantic.
LR2 appears to have peaked.
Charterers are increasingly shifting cargoes into LR1s and MRs as economics improve.
Meanwhile, MR demand remains firm:
• Cross-Med 30kt: WS487.5 ↑37.5 • Black Sea → Med: WS517.5 ↑37.5 • UKC → USAC: WS185 ↓10
East Asia MR tonnage remains tight into early November.
European products strengthened:
• ULSD 10ppm FOB NWE: $1,476/mt ↑$38.25 • Jet FOB NWE: $1,599/mt ↑$31.50 • EBOB: $1,179.50/mt ↑$25.25 • Naphtha: $893/mt ↑$10.50
ARA diesel/gasoil stocks:
1.664m mt
Still 21% below year-ago.
Jet remains tight despite some easing in premiums.
China’s crude system showed a notable shift.
September crude throughput:
14.04 mb/d
— a six-month high.
Crude stocks fell to:
1.252bn bbl
from 1.307bn bbl in August.
That implies a visible stock draw as domestic runs strengthened.
Imports also rose to a five-month high of 9.06 mb/d.
BUNKERS / FUEL OIL
Singapore Hi-5 rebounded from an eight-month low:
$48.73/mt
vs $39.76/mt previously.
But high freight, insurance costs and Gulf security risk continue to constrain HSFO arbitrage.
Fujairah bunker sales improved m/m, yet remain sharply below year-ago levels.
Atlantic differentials remain under heavy pressure.
• Azeri Light: +$7.75/b vs as high as +$18/b on Oct 12
• Djeno: ~−$37/b vs Dated Brent
• CPC Blend offers near parity
The correction in crude differentials is now as important as the flat-price move itself.
🔻 Dubai weakened for a seventh straight session 🔺 Brent–Dubai flipped back above zero ⚠️ Hormuz still carries a massive freight premium 🔻 Atlantic VLCC and Aframax freight continues to correct 🔺 European diesel and jet prices strengthened 🔺 China refinery throughput rose while crude stocks fell 🔻 Atlantic crude differentials remain under pressure