Daily Market Brief — 28 Oct 2026
Brent rebounded. Dubai kept weakening. Hormuz freight stayed structurally expensive. European naphtha tightened. And TTF pushed back above €100/MWh.
The market is still being driven by regional dislocation rather than one global price signal.
Brent recovered after the previous session’s selloff.
• ICE Brent Dec: $116.32/b ↑$2.30 • Dated Brent: $120.61/b ↑$1.09 • Dubai Dec: $114.20/b ↓$0.90 • Dubai cash/futures premium: +$5.68/b ↓$0.49
Dubai weakened for a fourth consecutive session as Asian demand softened into month-end.
Meanwhile, the North Sea moved into contango across early November — a notable shift after weeks of extreme backwardation.
PG → China VLCC:
WS1155 | $240.12/mt
Inside Persian Gulf: WS1250–1450
Gulf of Oman: WS600–700
Gulf of Oman → Far East economics remain dramatically cheaper than loading inside Hormuz.
That premium is not disappearing.
It is being sustained by security risk and tighter available tonnage.
Regional divergence continues.
• WAF → UKC Suezmax: WS720 ↑20 • Black Sea → Med Suezmax: WS1012.5 ↓52.5 • Vancouver → China Aframax: $12.5m ↓$1.75m
The broader tanker complex is normalizing unevenly — but Hormuz remains the outlier.
NAPHTHA — EUROPE TIGHTENS
Naphtha was one of the strongest physical product signals.
• CIF NWE: $984.75/mt ↑$27 • Nov/Dec backwardation: $44/mt • Dec/Jan: $27/mt • East-West spread: $76/mt
Petrochemical demand is returning as gasoline blending economics weaken.
Prompt supply remains tight.
Jet held firm:
• Jet CIF NWE: $1,593.25/mt ↑$10
Diesel remains supported by weak US inflows into NWE.
The USGC → Europe diesel arbitrage improved to:
+$1.70/b
but the incentive is still marginal.
No Saudi jet arrived into Europe in October, versus around 128kt in September.
Asia moved sharply lower on flat price.
• Singapore kerosene: $169.60/b ↓$9.04 • 10ppm gasoil: $171.01/b ↓$8.78 • 92 RON gasoline: ↓$3.77/b
At the same time, HSFO strengthened.
Fujairah inventories also shifted sharply:
• Light distillates: 1.942m bbl ↑638k • Middle distillates: 2.255m bbl • Heavy residues: 4.717m bbl ↑1.035m
East-of-Suez LR markets remain distorted by Hormuz.
• AG → Japan LR1: WS1050 • Gulf of Oman → Japan LR1: WS520
Spread:
WS530
Charterers continue to use shuttle tankers to Oman and West Coast India for STS transfers.
Scorpio Tankers’ numbers show just how extreme the LR market became:
• Oct LR2 earnings: ~$168k/day • Nov bookings: ~$215k/day
MR bookings have also risen sharply versus summer levels.
US commercial crude inventories fell again:
• Commercial crude: 410.6m bbl ↓1.9m • Cushing: 26.9m bbl ↓453k • Refinery runs: 16.6 mb/d • Crude exports: 4.50 mb/d
The US inventory signal remains supportive even as global crude pricing stays volatile.
UREA / GAS
European gas is becoming the dominant fertilizer story.
TTF front-month:
€97.50/MWh at open
and later traded above:
€100/MWh
Europe’s second-largest nitrogen producer warned that plant shutdowns are under consideration because of gas costs.
Current urea markers:
• Middle East FOB: $440–455/t • Egypt FOB: $535/t • Brazil CFR: $465–485/t • NOLA: $432–434/st
At current gas levels, European nitrogen production economics are becoming increasingly difficult.
🔺 Brent rebounded above $116/b 🔻 Dubai weakened for a fourth consecutive session ⚠️ Inside-Hormuz freight remains dramatically above Gulf of Oman 🔺 European naphtha tightened sharply 🔻 Asian kerosene and gasoil flat prices fell hard 🔺 US crude inventories declined again ⚠️ TTF traded above €100/MWh, raising renewed shutdown risk for European nitrogen plants