CommodityScope Dry Freight Methodology

1. Scope

This document records Dry Freight Methodology version 1.0 as applied to published assessments. It does not retrospectively assign a new effective date to earlier publications. Parent document: CommodityScope Assessment & Publication Framework (/methodology/core).

This methodology covers dry bulk grain voyage series and fertilizer voyage freight series published under it. Family membership and publication type are separate. The series specification, where issued, states the publication class of the named series. This document does not list every published route. A change to this methodology applies from its effective date to series governed by this document. Tanker freight, voyage TCE and physical grain or fertilizer assessments remain under their own methodologies.

Dry bulk grain voyage freight

Indicative Assessments for defined dry bulk grain trade lanes. Each series has an origin, a destination, a cargo basis where stated, a lot size or vessel class where stated, and a published unit. The published unit is typically USD/mt.

Fertilizer voyage freight

Indicative Assessments for defined fertilizer trade lanes. Each series has an origin, a destination, a cargo basis where stated, a lot size where stated, and a published unit. Typical cargo bases currently published under this family are urea and UAN. The published unit is typically USD/mt.

Outside this family

Physical grain assessments remain under Grain Assessment Methodology (/methodology/grain). Physical fertilizer assessments remain under Fertilizer Assessment Methodology (/methodology/fertilizers). Dirty tanker freight, clean tanker freight including LPG, CommodityScope voyage TCE, CommodityScope tanker freight indices, named dry-bulk freight indices, product-freight netbacks, carbon series and Crude Delivered Cost remain in their own families or model methodologies.

2. What Dry Freight 1.0 Is

Dry Freight 1.0 publishes a validated series-level freight midpoint in the stated market basis and constructs a separate CommodityScope Assessment Range around that level.

Dry Freight 1.0 evaluates each series on its stated route, cargo, lot-size or vessel-class and unit basis and publishes a validated midpoint with a separately constructed CommodityScope range. It is not a tanker freight methodology, a dry-bulk TCE model, a Baltic or other named-index methodology, or a physical grain or fertilizer assessment. Named dry-bulk freight indices remain under the Reference Series Publication Methodology (/methodology/reference).

3. Series Basis

Each published Dry Freight series is identified by its trade lane and by the characteristics that belong to that series:

• origin;
• destination;
• cargo basis, where stated;
• lot size, where stated;
• vessel class, where stated;
• published unit.

Each origin, destination, cargo basis, lot size and vessel class is maintained as a separate series. Grouping several lot sizes on one lane page does not blend their values or make their bases interchangeable.

Where a vessel class is stated, that class belongs to the series. Where a lot size is stated without a vessel class, the lot size is the published cargo-size basis. Dry Freight 1.0 does not infer a vessel class from lot size, and it does not infer a lot size from vessel class. It does not infer a cargo, origin or destination where that characteristic is not part of the published basis.

A parcel-size basis does not necessarily represent the exact deadweight or specification of an individual vessel. These assessments are not vessel fixtures or charter-party quotations.

Observations labelled US Lakes, Duluth continue the US Lakes series. Dry Freight 1.0 does not otherwise merge origin labels, destinations, cargoes or lot sizes, and it does not automatically normalize one trade lane to another.

4. Assessment Midpoint

For a dry bulk grain voyage series, the Assessment Midpoint is the validated freight level assigned to the defined series basis, published unit and assessment date.

For a fertilizer voyage freight series, a defined market range may be available for the same origin, destination, cargo and lot size. Dry Freight 1.0 publishes the midpoint of that defined market range as the Assessment Midpoint. That market range is not the CommodityScope Assessment Range.

Dry Freight 1.0 does not replace that midpoint through related-lane blending, previous-assessment carry, lot-size interpolation, vessel-class interpolation or conversion from Worldscale, lumpsum, USD/day or index points. Related series, previous assessments and range construction do not move the midpoint.

That midpoint is determined under this family methodology for the defined series basis. Validation, publication and range construction are performed under CommodityScope methodology. A dry freight route series remains a CommodityScope Indicative Assessment, or the publication class stated for that series.

5. Published Unit

The published CommodityScope midpoint is the validated freight market level in the published unit of the series. Dry bulk grain and fertilizer voyage series are typically USD/mt.

Dry Freight 1.0 does not convert Worldscale points, lumpsum figures, USD per day or named-index points into USD/mt. Those quoting bases, where they exist for other markets, retain their original basis and are not relabelled as the CommodityScope USD/mt Assessment Midpoint under methodology version 1.0.

6. Assessment Range

Dry Freight 1.0 constructs a CommodityScope range around the midpoint and stores it with the snapshot. The range is CommodityScope’s estimate of uncertainty around that assessed level.

The range is not the day’s fixture high and low, a printed fertilizer market range used to form the midpoint, a quoted bid/offer spread, an executable trading range, or the calendar-month observed minimum and maximum of published midpoints.

Range construction currently supplies the previous published assessment of the same series, historical volatility of the CommodityScope midpoint series, the series liquidity profile, confidence scaling and tick snapping. Other routes, other lot sizes, corresponding physical grain or fertilizer assessments, tanker freight and named freight indices do not enter range construction. Those values do not move the midpoint.

A Confidence Classification of High, Medium or Low is stored with that construction. Confidence describes the support available to the range-construction process under Dry Freight 1.0. It is not a statistical probability or a reliability score.

Dry freight pages currently present computed minimum and maximum statistics over published midpoints, including calendar-month observed ranges. Those observed ranges are computed statistics. They are not the CommodityScope Assessment Range, and Confidence Classification is not currently presented as a separate public product on those pages.

A change to published low or high is a methodology change even if the midpoint is unchanged.

7. Previous Assessment and History

The previous published assessment of the same series may enter range construction. It does not replace the current midpoint and it is not carried forward as a substitute where no new series-level market observation exists for the date.

Published assessments retain their original date and methodology version. Corrections preserve the audit history. Consecutive-available-date changes on dry freight pages are computed statistics over that history. Dry Freight 1.0 does not rewrite a published date to auto-correct an anomaly.

8. Liquidity Profile, Tick and Cadence

Each series has a Dry Freight 1.0 liquidity profile used for range floors and scaling. The profile is family-owned. It is not a global market-quality score.

Tick size follows the published unit. USD/mt snaps to 0.01. Published range bounds are snapped to that tick. The midpoint remains the validated freight market level and is not re-snapped under this methodology.

Dry freight series follow a weekly publication cadence. A new assessment is published for a qualifying observation date. Dates without a published assessment remain unpublished.

Cargo size, loading window and cutoff, where issued, are series-specification facts. They are not implied from this family methodology. The assessment date is the market date reflected by the snapshot. It is distinct from the time at which the value becomes available in CommodityScope systems.

9. Related Markets

Related series belong to the family methodology. Dry Freight 1.0 does not use related series as midpoint inputs and does not currently list related series as range inputs.

Same-lane lot sizes, economically connected routes and corresponding physical grain or fertilizer assessments may be reviewed as market context or appear as page navigation. They do not enter the Dry Freight 1.0 midpoint or Assessment Range.

10. Physical Grain and Fertilizer Assessments

A dry freight voyage series is not a physical commodity assessment.

The cargo named on a grain voyage series is the cargo basis of that freight series. Dry Freight 1.0 does not convert that series into a wheat, corn, barley or other physical grain assessment. Those physical markets remain under Grain Assessment Methodology (/methodology/grain).

A urea or UAN voyage series remains a fertilizer freight series. Dry Freight 1.0 does not convert that series into a physical fertilizer assessment. Those physical markets remain under Fertilizer Assessment Methodology (/methodology/fertilizers).

11. Publication Boundary

Validated dry freight midpoints, weekly cadence, range construction from the series’ own history, and lot-size non-conversion are publication rules of this methodology. They are not applied to dirty tanker freight (/methodology/dirty-tanker), clean tanker freight (/methodology/clean-tanker), oil products, grain, fertilizers, voyage TCE (/methodology/tce) or Crude Delivered Cost.

12. Important Notice

Dry freight values published under this methodology are CommodityScope Indicative Assessments or the publication class stated for the series. They are analytical estimates for market-intelligence purposes, not bids, offers, fixtures, executable quotations or contractual settlement values, and they are not represented as a regulated benchmark.

Use is subject to the CommodityScope Assessment & Publication Framework and the CommodityScope Terms of Service.