CommodityScope Fertilizer Assessment Methodology

1. Scope

This document formalizes Fertilizer methodology version 1.1 as recorded on applicable published snapshots. It does not retrospectively assign a new effective date to earlier publications. Parent document: CommodityScope Assessment & Publication Framework (/methodology/core).

This methodology currently covers physical fertilizer, fertilizer forward and supporting series published under this family. Family membership and publication type are separate. The series specification states the publication class of the named series.

Physical fertilizers

Physical assessments for defined product, origin or delivery basis, including urea, ammonium sulphate, ammonium nitrate / CAN and UAN series where published as physical prices under this family.

Forward and structure series

Tenor-specific fertilizer swap and forward series remain separate series. A forward tenor is not automatically equivalent to the physical spot assessment for the same product and origin.

Modelled and supporting series

Production-cost and nutrient-value series published under this methodology are CommodityScope Modelled Indicators. Henry Hub and TTF gas series published under this methodology are Reference Market Series. Publication under this methodology does not convert those series into physical fertilizer assessments. The public meaning of that reference class is described in the Reference Series Publication Methodology (/methodology/reference).

Outside this family

Dry fertilizer freight, oil products, grain, tanker, TCE and other freight remain in their own families. A change to this Fertilizer methodology does not change assessments published under those methodologies.

2. What Fertilizer 1.1 Is

Fertilizer 1.1 publishes a validated market level as the Assessment Midpoint on the defined series basis and assessment date, and constructs a separate CommodityScope Assessment Range around that level.

Physical assessments are dated from the issue date of the assigned market observation. The range currently uses the previous published assessment of the same series.

3. Assessment Midpoint

For a physical price series, the Assessment Midpoint is the validated market level assigned to the defined series basis and assessment date.

That level is taken from the series-level market observation that CommodityScope has validated and assigned to the series for that date. Related series, supplementary quotes, previous assessments and range construction do not move the midpoint.

Validation, assignment to the defined market basis, publication and the CommodityScope range remain CommodityScope processes. The published series remains a CommodityScope Indicative Assessment, or the publication class stated on the series specification.

For forward series the midpoint is the validated published level of the selected tenor for that series. For production-cost, nutrient-value and gas series published under this methodology, the midpoint is the validated published value of that series.

A series whose published basis is a netback remains that series. Fertilizer 1.1 does not reconstruct the netback from separately assessed legs. Daily and weekly tables of the same origin remain separate series. Grouping them on one market page does not blend their values.

4. Assessment Range

Where the series is a physical Indicative Assessment, Fertilizer 1.1 publishes an Assessment Range around the midpoint. The range is CommodityScope’s estimate of uncertainty around that assessed level.

The range is not the day’s trading high and low, a quoted bid/offer spread, or an executable trading range. It is CommodityScope’s uncertainty interval around the Assessment Midpoint.

Range construction currently supplies the previous published assessment, together with historical volatility of the CommodityScope midpoint series, the series liquidity profile, confidence scaling and tick snapping. Fertilizer 1.1 does not currently supply related series or supplementary quotes to the range.

The public CommodityScope Assessment Range applies only to physical Indicative Assessments under this methodology.

Where a range is published, Fertilizer 1.1 may attach a Confidence Classification of High, Medium or Low. Confidence describes the support available to range construction: the previous published assessment, historical volatility and the series liquidity profile. It is not a probability that physical cargo will trade at the midpoint.

A change to published low or high is a methodology change even if the midpoint is unchanged.

5. Liquidity Profile, Tick and Cadence

Each series has a Fertilizer 1.1 liquidity profile used for range floors and scaling. The profile is family-owned. It is not a global market-quality score.

Tick size follows the published unit. Physical fertilizer series in USD/mt, EUR/mt or USD/st snap to 0.50. Published range bounds are snapped to that tick. The midpoint remains the validated market level and is not re-snapped under this methodology.

Physical fertilizer series follow a daily publication cycle, including series whose published name refers to a weekly table. A new physical assessment is published only for a qualifying issue date of the assigned market observation. Daily cadence does not imply that a new assessment must exist on every business or calendar day. Fertilizer swap and forward series remain weekly. A weekly name does not, by itself, change the physical fertilizer cadence under this methodology.

Cargo size, loading window and cutoff, where issued, are series-specification facts. They are not implied from this family methodology. The assessment date is the market date reflected by the snapshot. It is distinct from the time at which the value becomes available in CommodityScope systems.

6. Related Markets

Related series belong to this family methodology and are listed. Fertilizer 1.1 does not currently list related-forward or related-physical series as midpoint or range inputs.

Observations that differ from the series Standard Basis are not mechanically converted. Fertilizer 1.1 does not apply an origin, nutrient-form, Incoterm or parcel premium to the Assessment Midpoint.

Economically connected fertilizer markets, gas feedstocks and modelled nutrient or cost indicators may be reviewed as market context. They do not enter the Fertilizer 1.1 midpoint or Assessment Range unless explicitly listed by the applicable Fertilizer methodology.

7. Publication Governance

A change to this Fertilizer methodology does not change assessments published under other family methodologies.

Assigned fertilizer midpoints, previous-assessment range construction and issue-date cadence are Fertilizer rules. They are not applied to oil products, grain, freight, tanker, TCE or other reference families.

8. Important Notice

Fertilizer values published under this methodology are CommodityScope Indicative Assessments or the publication class stated on the series specification. They are analytical estimates for market-intelligence purposes, not bids, offers, executable quotations or contractual settlement values, and they are not represented as a regulated benchmark.

Use is subject to the CommodityScope Assessment & Publication Framework and the CommodityScope Terms of Service.