CommodityScope Voyage TCE Model Methodology

1. Scope

This document records Voyage TCE methodology version 2.0 as applied to published modelled indicators. It does not retrospectively assign a new effective date to earlier publications and it does not close, replace or recalculate Voyage TCE 1.0 families. Parent document: CommodityScope Assessment & Publication Framework (/methodology/core).

Voyage TCE is a model methodology, not a tanker freight assessment family. It reads published clean and dirty tanker freight snapshots and published bunker prices at the assigned hub. It does not replace those assessments and it does not construct a CommodityScope Assessment Range.

Published Voyage TCE indicators

CommodityScope Modelled Indicators of net daily earnings for a defined tanker voyage, vessel class and cargo basis. Each published result is expressed in USD/day. Non-eco and eco/scrubber results publish independently on the same freight date and cargo basis when each profile’s required bunker grades are present. A missing eco stem does not withhold a published non-eco result. MR, LR1, LR2, Aframax, Suezmax and VLCC pairs share one speed basis. Handysize and Panamax pairs use the published Baltic standard-speed and eco-speed bases.

Vessel classes currently modelled

Handysize, MR, Panamax, LR1, LR2, Aframax, Suezmax and VLCC. An LPG series remains outside this model. Product-freight series in USD/bbl, demurrage in USD/day, Cape routing variants, carbon, shadow-fleet and dry-bulk freight are not Voyage TCE inputs.

Outside this methodology

Clean tanker freight assessments (/methodology/clean-tanker), dirty tanker freight assessments (/methodology/dirty-tanker), CommodityScope tanker freight indices, third-party TCE, oil physical assessments, dry freight and Crude Delivered Cost remain in their own families or model methodologies.

2. What Voyage TCE Is

Voyage TCE converts a published tanker freight midpoint into a modelled net daily earnings figure under versioned vessel and route assumptions.

The published result is a CommodityScope Modelled Indicator. It is not a freight assessment, a fixture, a charter quotation, a vessel-specific earnings statement, or an externally administered TCE benchmark.

3. Calculation

For each published route profile and vessel profile on a freight date, Voyage TCE calculates:

TCE = (Gross freight − commission − fuel cost − voyage costs) / voyage duration

• gross freight is the published USD/mt freight midpoint multiplied by the route cargo basis in metric tons;
• commission is 2.5% of gross freight;
• fuel cost is modelled consumption priced at the assigned bunker hub;
• voyage costs are the port, agency and canal cost assumptions in the route profile;
• voyage duration is laden sea time, ballast sea time, port time, canal time and waiting time under that profile.

Sea time applies a 5% weather allowance to the stated distance and speed. The published TCE is expressed in USD/day, rounded to the nearest dollar.

4. Freight Input

The freight input is the published USD/mt Assessment Midpoint of the tanker freight series assigned to that route profile, on the same date as the TCE result. Voyage TCE does not read the CommodityScope Assessment Range, Worldscale points, lumpsum figures, USD/day demurrage, index points or a previous freight assessment as a substitute.

A change to the published freight midpoint is a tanker freight methodology or evidence change. It is not, by itself, a Voyage TCE methodology change. The TCE result for that date uses the freight midpoint as published.

Voyage TCE does not convert Worldscale, lumpsum or another quoting basis into USD/mt.

5. Vessel Profiles

Each vessel class has two CommodityScope standard vessel profiles: non-eco and eco/scrubber. They differ by fuel basis and consumption. For MR, LR1, LR2, Aframax, Suezmax and VLCC they share laden and ballast speed. They are two standard profiles compared at the same speed, not one vessel with and without a scrubber. Handysize and Panamax are the documented exception: the non-eco profile uses the published Baltic standard 13 knots laden and 12 knots ballast; the eco/scrubber profile uses the published Baltic eco 11 knots laden and ballast on the CommodityScope HSFO scrubber fuel basis. Port consumption on those two classes converts the published Baltic call totals through the two-day load and two-day discharge already used by Voyage TCE 2.0. A heating consumption figure that is not a Voyage TCE vessel-profile field is omitted, as already done for published Aframax dirty families. Voyage TCE does not infer a vessel class or convert an LPG series into an MR, LR1 or LR2 voyage.

A non-eco profile burns VLSFO outside an ECA and MGO 0.1% inside an ECA, including in ECA ports. An eco/scrubber profile burns HSFO on the scrubber basis, including in an ECA.

Cargo quantity used in the TCE is the route-profile cargo basis. The vessel-profile cargo default does not override that basis.

6. Route Profiles and Voyage Assumptions

Each published TCE uses a versioned route profile: origin and discharge reference ports, laden and ballast distances, ECA mileage, port time, waiting time, canal time and cost where included, bunker hub, cargo basis and vessel class.

Voyage TCE 1.0 families keep the distances stored on their own versioned route profiles. Voyage TCE 2.0 families read the unrounded source distance and emission-control geometry from the published Voyage Routes 1.3 snapshot for that family. Ballast returns from the discharge reference port to the load reference port unless the route profile states otherwise. Routing waypoints such as Gibraltar or the Danish Straits are not treated as CommodityScope canal products. Canal time and canal cost enter only where the route profile includes them. A Voyage Routes flag that the family path uses Suez or Panama does not invent a canal cost; that family stays unpublished until a canal cost belongs to the route profile from the Voyage Canal Cost Registry. Three VLCC families — Caribbean→China, Caribbean→Singapore and US Gulf→China — cannot use the published Voyage Routes 1.3 Panama path: a standard VLCC beam exceeds the ACP Neopanamax beam limit of 51.25 m. Those families read a Voyage Routes 1.4 Cape of Good Hope overlay computed on the same local router with Panama and Suez blocked. The overlay does not replace the published 1.3 snapshots. The shared Caribbean→China Suezmax family keeps the 1.3 Panama miles and the Panama canal package. A Suez check path is shorter but is not assigned: Suez is the commercial lane for other published VLCC families, not a Panama substitute for these Americas–Asia voyages, and a laden VLCC is outside the Suezmax draft class. A Drake Passage overlay was compared and is longer on each of the three lanes while the Malacca approach already used by other VLCC China and Singapore families remains open. Magellan is not modelled. Panama transit time and Panama canal cost are not booked on the overlay.

Port and agency costs are standardised model assumptions. They are approximate CommodityScope model values, not a port invoice and not a surveyed scale of dues. Voyage TCE 2.0 reads the CommodityScope Voyage Port Cost Registry: a terminal-class call package, or the East-of-Suez class convention. Each package stores its origin and version. A registry package records port dues, pilotage, tugs and agency separately so those items are not counted twice. Voyage TCE applies the load-call agency once. A package is a model assumption unless it states that a named official tariff line was used for one component. Official tariff lines are not treated as the published call total. Adding a named terminal package does not turn a model call into a surveyed invoice. Expanding Voyage TCE coverage does not convert these cs_model packages into official tariff totals. Canal costs remain outside the port-cost registry.

Voyage TCE 2.0 reads the CommodityScope Voyage Canal Cost Registry for Suez and Panama. Official Suez Canal Authority progressive SDR/SCNT dues and the applicable laden or ballast periodical surcharge are converted at a dated IMF SDR dollar rate. Official Panama Canal Authority fixed and PC/UMS capacity tolls are applied by published lock class; ballast pays 85 percent of those two toll components. An official flat tug tariff is included only where the stated model dimensions fall in a published complete-transit band, or where the official ACP VUMPA calculator assigns that complete-transit tug line to the stated Super MR. The MR Panama package is an incomplete CommodityScope model, not an ACP invoice. Official VUMPA laden and ballast reference quotes dated 3 November 2026 total USD 483,961.56; the TCE package books USD 439,254. The omitted USD 44,707.56 are freshwater at a default lake level, first-time admeasurement, and per-unit linehandler or locomotive lines without counts. A Voyage TCE that uses that package is therefore higher than a round-voyage cost that included those omitted official lines, by that omitted amount divided by voyage days. The package uses the official VUMPA model PC/UMS estimated from published ITC length, beam and gross tonnage of a named representative hull; lock class Super is taken from ACP dimensional rules and from the VUMPA Super label, not from deadweight. Official VUMPA security and inspection lines enter that MR package. SCNT and PC/UMS are stated model canal-tonnage profiles for the standard vessel class. They are not canal certificates and are not substituted from DWT. A round voyage prices a laden transit and a ballast return on the same path and books one model day per transit. Trade-specific rebates, Kiel, and transits that still lack a required canal parameter stay unpublished. A Panama-flagged path that the standard vessel cannot physically use stays unpublished as a Voyage Routes geometry hold; it is not priced from a missing Panama invoice. Linehandler and locomotive quantities that are not on the profile are omitted rather than invented.

A route profile is published only where it has a published tanker freight series, accepted distances, an assigned bunker hub with the required published bunker prices, and voyage assumptions that belong to that vessel class. A withheld profile is not interpolated from another class or another bunker hub. War-risk and exceptional security costs are not included in the voyage-cost assumptions.

7. Bunker Inputs

Voyage TCE 1.0 reads published CommodityScope marine-fuel cargo assessments at the assigned hub. Those prices are not delivered-to-vessel bunker stems. Barging and delivery premia are not added under Voyage TCE 1.0.

Voyage TCE 2.0 reads the vessel stem at the assigned hub. A published delivered assessment is used directly. An ex-wharf assessment is used only together with a published barging assessment at that same hub. A FOB barge assessment is used only together with a published barging assessment at that same hub. Barging is never added to a delivered assessment. Where the required delivered, ex-wharf-plus-barging or FOB-barge-plus-barging stem is not published, Voyage TCE 2.0 may read the marine-fuel cargo assessment at that same hub. Another hub is not substituted. IFO 500 is not used as IFO 380.

For each required grade, the model uses the latest published bunker assessment at that hub dated on or before the freight date. A later bunker assessment is not applied to an earlier freight date. Freight inputs remain same-date; bunker inputs follow this latest-on-or-before rule. Non-eco requires published VLSFO 0.5% and, where the voyage uses ECA fuel, MGO 0.1%. Eco/scrubber requires published IFO 380. Where an assigned bunker hub lacks the grades required by a vessel profile, that profile is unpublished. Another hub is not substituted.

8. Straits Delay and Waiting Time

Scheduled transit days in the route profile always enter voyage duration. Where the route profile includes observed Turkish Straits delay, Voyage TCE also adds the published northbound and southbound delay, using the latest published delay dated on or before the freight date. A later delay observation is not applied to an earlier freight date.

Turkish Straits delay is a waiting-time input. It is not demurrage in USD/day and it is not an adjustment to the freight midpoint. Clean and dirty demurrage series do not enter Voyage TCE.

9. Profile Versions

Vessel and route profiles are versioned with inclusive effective dates. Each result uses exactly one vessel-profile version and exactly one route-profile version applicable to its date. Overlapping or missing windows are not filled by an arbitrary version choice.

Current Voyage TCE 1.0 vessel and route profiles apply from 1 September 2026. Voyage TCE 2.0 adds new route-profile identifiers for newly published families. Where a 1.0 identifier existed only as an unpublished profile, Voyage TCE 2.0 may use that same identifier. That is not a second public TCE and it does not rewrite a previously published 1.0 result. Closing a published profile and adding a later version is a methodology change for subsequent dates. It does not rewrite previously published results.

A change to speed, consumption, fuel basis, distance, cargo basis, commission, weather allowance, port or canal cost, bunker-hub assignment or the TCE formula is a Voyage TCE methodology change. Diagnostics do not change the published USD/day result.

10. Publication and Cadence

A TCE result is published where the assigned series has a published USD/mt freight midpoint, uniquely resolved vessel and route profiles, and the bunker assessments required by that vessel profile. Daily tanker cadence does not imply that a TCE result must exist on every business or calendar day.

The public pages present each published vessel profile and the change versus the previous published result of the same profile. A missing eco or non-eco result is shown as unavailable with the missing bunker grade. That consecutive-date change is a computed statistic over published history. Voyage TCE does not construct a CommodityScope Assessment Range around the TCE.

11. Corrections and Historical Integrity

Published TCE results retain their freight date, profile versions and methodology version. Later changes to model assumptions do not rewrite prior published values.

A data or coding error is corrected through the applicable correction mechanism while preserving audit history. A correction is not a new methodology version. A methodology change is versioned separately from a correction of erroneous data. Where Voyage Routes later corrects a coding error in the routing graph, already published Voyage TCE 2.0 results that used the earlier graph keep their original snapshots and are superseded through that correction mechanism.

12. Related Products

Voyage TCE is not part of Clean Tanker Freight Methodology or Dirty Tanker Freight Methodology.

Published clean and dirty tanker freight snapshots may be read as same-date inputs. A change to those freight methodologies that changes a published freight numeric is a freight methodology change. A change to Voyage TCE assumptions must not be described as a tanker freight assessment change.

CommodityScope tanker freight indices are calculated from published freight assessments, not from TCE. Crude Delivered Cost reads dirty tanker freight, not this model. Neither product is part of Voyage TCE methodology.

Marine-fuel cargo assessments and bunker stems remain in Bunker Assessment Methodology (/methodology/bunker). Steamer distances and emission-control geometry are determined under Voyage Routes Methodology (/methodology/voyage-routes). Voyage TCE 1.0 continues to use the distances stored on its own route profiles. Voyage TCE 2.0 reads the unrounded Voyage Routes 1.3 source distance for new families only. Three Panama-ineligible VLCC families read a Voyage Routes 1.4 Cape overlay instead of the published 1.3 Panama miles; those 1.3 snapshots stay in the book.

13. Publication Boundary

Versioned vessel and route assumptions, bunker-hub assignment, ECA fuel split, Straits waiting treatment and the TCE formula are publication rules of this model. They are not applied to tanker freight midpoints, tanker freight indices, oil products, grain, fertilizers, dry freight, Voyage Routes or Crude Delivered Cost.

14. Important Notice

Voyage TCE values published under this methodology are CommodityScope Modelled Indicators. They are analytical estimates for market-intelligence purposes, not bids, offers, fixtures, executable quotations, vessel-specific earnings or contractual settlement values, and they are not represented as a regulated benchmark.

Use is subject to the CommodityScope Assessment & Publication Framework and the CommodityScope Terms of Service.