CommodityScope Voyage TCE Model Methodology

1. Scope

This document records Voyage TCE methodology version 1.0 as applied to published modelled indicators. It does not retrospectively assign a new effective date to earlier publications. Parent document: CommodityScope Assessment & Publication Framework (/methodology/core).

Voyage TCE is a model methodology, not a tanker freight assessment family. It reads published clean and dirty tanker freight snapshots and published marine-fuel cargo assessments. It does not replace those assessments and it does not construct a CommodityScope Assessment Range.

Published Voyage TCE indicators

CommodityScope Modelled Indicators of net daily earnings for a defined tanker voyage, vessel class and cargo basis. Each published result is expressed in USD/day. Where a route profile is published, Voyage TCE 1.0 produces a paired non-eco and eco/scrubber result on the same freight date, cargo basis and speed basis.

Vessel classes currently modelled

MR, LR1, LR2, Aframax, Suezmax and VLCC. An LPG series remains outside this model. Product-freight series in USD/bbl, demurrage in USD/day, Cape routing variants, carbon, shadow-fleet and dry-bulk freight are not Voyage TCE 1.0 inputs.

Outside this methodology

Clean tanker freight assessments (/methodology/clean-tanker), dirty tanker freight assessments (/methodology/dirty-tanker), CommodityScope tanker freight indices, third-party TCE, oil physical assessments, dry freight and Crude Delivered Cost remain in their own families or model methodologies.

2. What Voyage TCE 1.0 Is

Voyage TCE 1.0 converts a published tanker freight midpoint into a modelled net daily earnings figure under versioned vessel and route assumptions.

The published result is a CommodityScope Modelled Indicator. It is not a freight assessment, a fixture, a charter quotation, a vessel-specific earnings statement, or an externally administered TCE benchmark.

3. Calculation

For each published route profile and vessel profile on a freight date, Voyage TCE 1.0 calculates:

TCE = (Gross freight − commission − fuel cost − voyage costs) / voyage duration

• gross freight is the published USD/mt freight midpoint multiplied by the route cargo basis in metric tons;
• commission is 2.5% of gross freight;
• fuel cost is modelled consumption priced at the assigned bunker hub;
• voyage costs are the port, agency and canal cost assumptions in the route profile;
• voyage duration is laden sea time, ballast sea time, port time, canal time and waiting time under that profile.

Sea time applies a 5% weather allowance to the stated distance and speed. The published TCE is expressed in USD/day, rounded to the nearest dollar.

4. Freight Input

The freight input is the published USD/mt Assessment Midpoint of the tanker freight series assigned to that route profile, on the same date as the TCE result. Voyage TCE 1.0 does not read the CommodityScope Assessment Range, Worldscale points, lumpsum figures, USD/day demurrage, index points or a previous freight assessment as a substitute.

A change to the published freight midpoint is a tanker freight methodology or evidence change. It is not, by itself, a Voyage TCE methodology change. The TCE result for that date uses the freight midpoint as published.

Voyage TCE 1.0 does not convert Worldscale, lumpsum or another quoting basis into USD/mt.

5. Vessel Profiles

Each vessel class has two CommodityScope standard vessel profiles: non-eco and eco/scrubber. They share laden and ballast speed. They differ by fuel basis and consumption. They are two standard profiles compared at the same speed, not one vessel with and without a scrubber. Voyage TCE 1.0 does not infer a vessel class or convert an LPG series into an MR, LR1 or LR2 voyage.

A non-eco profile burns VLSFO outside an ECA and MGO 0.1% inside an ECA, including in ECA ports. An eco/scrubber profile burns HSFO on the scrubber basis, including in an ECA.

Cargo quantity used in the TCE is the route-profile cargo basis. The vessel-profile cargo default does not override that basis.

6. Route Profiles and Voyage Assumptions

Each published TCE uses a versioned route profile: origin and discharge reference ports, laden and ballast distances, ECA mileage, port time, waiting time, canal time and cost where included, bunker hub, cargo basis and vessel class.

Distances are CommodityScope reference-port nautical miles. Ballast returns from the discharge reference port to the load reference port unless the route profile states otherwise. Routing waypoints such as Gibraltar or the Danish Straits are not treated as CommodityScope canal products. Canal time and canal cost enter only where the route profile includes them.

Port, agency and canal costs are standardised model assumptions for the stated reference terminals or East-of-Suez class convention.

A route profile is published only where it has a published tanker freight series, accepted distances, an assigned bunker hub with published marine-fuel cargo assessments, and voyage assumptions that belong to that vessel class. A withheld profile is not interpolated from another class or another bunker hub. War-risk and exceptional security costs are not included in the voyage-cost assumptions.

7. Bunker Inputs

Bunker prices are published CommodityScope marine-fuel cargo assessments at the assigned hub. They are not delivered-to-vessel bunker stems. Barging and delivery premia are not added under Voyage TCE 1.0.

For each required grade, the model uses the latest published marine-fuel assessment at that hub dated on or before the freight date. A later bunker assessment is not applied to an earlier freight date. Freight inputs remain same-date; bunker inputs follow this latest-on-or-before rule. Where an assigned bunker hub lacks the required published CommodityScope marine-fuel assessment, Voyage TCE is not published for that route. Another hub is not substituted.

8. Straits Delay and Waiting Time

Scheduled transit days in the route profile always enter voyage duration. Where the route profile includes observed Turkish Straits delay, Voyage TCE 1.0 also adds the published northbound and southbound delay, using the latest published delay dated on or before the freight date. A later delay observation is not applied to an earlier freight date.

Turkish Straits delay is a waiting-time input. It is not demurrage in USD/day and it is not an adjustment to the freight midpoint. Clean and dirty demurrage series do not enter Voyage TCE 1.0.

9. Profile Versions

Vessel and route profiles are versioned with inclusive effective dates. Each result uses exactly one vessel-profile version and exactly one route-profile version applicable to its date. Overlapping or missing windows are not filled by an arbitrary version choice.

Current Voyage TCE 1.0 vessel and route profiles apply from 1 September 2026. Closing a profile and adding a later version is a methodology change for subsequent dates. It does not rewrite previously published results.

A change to speed, consumption, fuel basis, distance, cargo basis, commission, weather allowance, port or canal cost, bunker-hub assignment or the TCE formula is a Voyage TCE methodology change. Diagnostics do not change the published USD/day result.

10. Publication and Cadence

A TCE result is published where the assigned series has a published USD/mt freight midpoint, uniquely resolved vessel and route profiles, and the required bunker assessments. Daily tanker cadence does not imply that a TCE result must exist on every business or calendar day.

The public pages present paired non-eco and eco results and the change versus the previous published result of the same profile. That consecutive-date change is a computed statistic over published history. Voyage TCE 1.0 does not construct a CommodityScope Assessment Range around the TCE.

11. Corrections and Historical Integrity

Published TCE results retain their freight date, profile versions and methodology version. Later changes to model assumptions do not rewrite prior published values.

A data or coding error is corrected through the applicable correction mechanism while preserving audit history. A correction is not a new methodology version. A methodology change is versioned separately from a correction of erroneous data.

12. Related Products

Voyage TCE is not part of Clean Tanker Freight Methodology or Dirty Tanker Freight Methodology.

Published clean and dirty tanker freight snapshots may be read as same-date inputs. A change to those freight methodologies that changes a published freight numeric is a freight methodology change. A change to Voyage TCE assumptions must not be described as a tanker freight assessment change.

CommodityScope tanker freight indices are calculated from published freight assessments, not from TCE. Crude Delivered Cost reads dirty tanker freight, not this model. Neither product is part of Voyage TCE methodology.

13. Publication Boundary

Versioned vessel and route assumptions, bunker-hub assignment, ECA fuel split, Straits waiting treatment and the TCE formula are publication rules of this model. They are not applied to tanker freight midpoints, tanker freight indices, oil products, grain, fertilizers, dry freight or Crude Delivered Cost.

14. Important Notice

Voyage TCE values published under this methodology are CommodityScope Modelled Indicators. They are analytical estimates for market-intelligence purposes, not bids, offers, fixtures, executable quotations, vessel-specific earnings or contractual settlement values, and they are not represented as a regulated benchmark.

Use is subject to the CommodityScope Assessment & Publication Framework and the CommodityScope Terms of Service.