Daily Market Brief — 22 Oct 2026
Middle East risk premium is back.
Dubai strengthened sharply. Brent jumped. Inside-Hormuz freight remains detached from the rest of the tanker market. And crude differentials in the Atlantic are still being crushed by freight and war-risk costs.
Dubai strengthened for a third consecutive session.
• Cash Dubai premium: +$8.09/b ↑$2.55 • Dec cash Dubai: $115.40/b • Dated Brent: $128.11/b ↑$3.99 • ICE Brent Dec: $113.17/b ↑$4.35
Middle East exports are recovering:
19.2 mb/d 7-day average as of Oct 18 vs 15.2 mb/d on Oct 12
But flows are still only around 74% of pre-war levels.
HORMUZ / SECURITY
The risk premium remains real.
Recent incidents include:
• Tanker struck southeast of Al-Faw, Iraq • Aframax crude tanker hit west of Bukha, Oman and caught fire
Hormuz crossings:
17 vessels on Oct 21
Bab al-Mandab:
34 vessels
Freight remains dramatically different depending on whether cargo loads inside or outside the Strait.
PG → China VLCC:
WS1140
Inside-Persian Gulf: WS1150–1300
Gulf of Oman: WS550–675
A Fujairah → China fixture was confirmed at:
WS650
This is the defining tanker dislocation:
inside Hormuz remains expensive, while outside-Gulf VLCC freight keeps correcting.
Freight and war-risk costs continue to destroy FOB economics.
CPC Blend:
• CIF Augusta: −$6.855/b vs Dated Brent • Lowest since assessment launch • War-risk premium: $5/b • Up 67% in three weeks
Latin America also weakened:
• Tupi: −$24.10/b • Mero: −$22.50/b
Some delivered barrels were even discussed near parity to Dated Brent.
Atlantic freight was mixed.
• WAF → East VLCC: WS615 ↑13.5 • WAF → UKC Suezmax: WS735 ↓7.5 • Black Sea → Med Suezmax: WS1055 ↓45 • USGC → UKC Aframax: WS715 ↑70
Med Aframax also strengthened sharply on tight early-November tonnage.
Inside-Hormuz clean freight remains extreme.
• PG → Japan LR1: WS1070 • PG → Japan LR2: WS1100
Premium versus Gulf of Oman:
• LR1: +WS570 • LR2: +WS615
Charterers increasingly use shuttle tankers to Oman or West Coast India for STS transfers instead of direct voyages through Hormuz.
Outside the Gulf, clean freight also strengthened:
• Cross-UKC: WS410 ↑85 • Baltic → UKC: WS420 ↑85
European products broadly strengthened.
Jet remains structurally tight.
Europe jet/kero imports:
~1.2m mt Oct 1–22
vs
2.0m mt in all September
Spain also announced a release of around 4.4m bbl of diesel and jet from strategic reserves, although barrels will not reach the market before mid-December.
Naphtha strengthened:
• CIF NWE: $933.50/mt ↑$24 • East-West spread: $73.50/mt ↑$6.50
Jet finally stabilized after five straight sessions of weakness.
• Singapore jet/kero diff: +$0.08/b • Gasoil cash diff: +$1.04/b • Nov/Dec gasoil spread: $3.00/b
Fuel oil tightened again:
• 380 CST Nov/Dec backwardation: $53.75/mt • 0.5%S cash premium: +$25.63/mt
November LSFO arbitrage arrivals into Singapore are expected to fall:
30–40% vs October
because freight remains prohibitively high.
International urea is stable to slightly softer.
• Egypt FOB: $515–535/t • Nigeria FOB: $465–475/t • Brazil CFR: $470–485/t • NOLA: ~$430/st
China exported:
2.45m t in September
↑ 78% y/y
India absorbed roughly 1.6m t.
The next Indian tender may emerge as early as next week.
🔺 Dubai premium surged to +$8.09/b 🔺 Brent strengthened sharply ⚠️ Hormuz remains the dominant freight distortion 🔻 Atlantic crude differentials remain under severe pressure 🔺 Clean LR freight inside the Gulf remains extreme 🔺 European jet and naphtha remain tight 🔻 Singapore LSFO arrivals are expected to fall sharply in November ⚖️ Urea is stable after the recent rebound