Daily Market Brief — 26 Oct 2026
The market is splitting harder by geography.
Inside-Hormuz freight remains extreme. Atlantic freight is softer. European diesel and naphtha are tightening. And gas is once again becoming a major fertilizer-market driver.
Middle East physical pricing softened into month-end.
• Cash Dubai premium: +$6.69/b ↓$1.30 • Dated Brent: $127.97/b ↑$1.28
IOC secured December Basrah barrels at discounts to Dubai:
• Basrah Medium: −$2.25/b • Basrah Heavy: −$7.20/b
In Europe, sour crude remains weak:
• CPC Blend: around −$8 to −$9/b vs Dated • Forties: heard near +$3/b • Johan Sverdrup: offered at +$1.15/b
PG → China VLCC:
WS1125 | $233.89/mt
Gulf of Oman → Far East:
WS565 | $112.10/mt
Inside Persian Gulf: WS1150–1300
Gulf of Oman: WS540–575
That means inside-Gulf freight is still roughly double Gulf of Oman economics.
Confirmed Fujairah fixtures:
• Fujairah → East: WS560 • Fujairah → China: WS550
Atlantic markets are much softer than early October.
• WAF → UKC Suezmax: WS710 ↓72.5 • WAF → Far East VLCC: WS562.5 • Brazil → China VLCC: WS535 • Black Sea → Med Suezmax: WS1100
WAF Suezmax and VLCC rates are now far below the extreme levels seen earlier this month.
Heavy sour crude remains under pressure.
• WCS Cushing: −$23/b vs WTI — weakest on record
• WCS Hardisty: −$31.05/b — lowest since October 2022
Oversupply of heavy crude into the US Gulf is intensifying competition between Canadian, Venezuelan and Colombian barrels.
European diesel strengthened again.
• 10ppm diesel CIF NWE: $1,553/mt ↑$28.25 • ICE LSGO Nov: $1,521.75/mt ↑$29.50
Jet also remains supported:
• Jet barge crack: $78.74/b • Diesel barge crack: $73.60/b • Jet premium: +$5.14/b
Switzerland has authorized a temporary release of up to 45,000 m³ of diesel stocks amid supply disruptions.
Naphtha tightened sharply.
• CIF NWE: $982/mt ↑$8.50 • Nov/Dec backwardation: $44/mt • Dec/Jan: $28.50/mt • East-West spread: $76/mt
Prompt supply remains tight, while the wide East-West spread is drawing European barrels toward Asia.
Jet remains weak.
• Singapore jet cash diff: −$0.18/b • Lowest in a month
Fresh South Korean offers and resumed Chinese exports continue to pressure the market.
Meanwhile, Singapore fuel oil remains firm:
• 0.5%S cash premium: +$28.67/mt • Third consecutive daily rise • Highest since Oct 5
East-of-Suez MRs softened on ample tonnage.
West-of-Suez remained firmer:
• USGC → UKC: WS475 ↑20 • Cross-UKC: WS520 ↑20 • Baltic → UKC: WS530 ↑20
LR activity remains slow, while charterers continue using shuttle structures around Hormuz.
UREA / GAS
Urea strengthened again.
• Egypt granular FOB: $530–535/t • Nigeria FOB: $475–485/t
But the bigger signal is gas:
TTF front month: €96.87/MWh
↑2.5% d/d Highest since December 2022
EU gas storage is only around 74% full versus a three-year average near 91%.
Estimated European granular urea break-even:
~$800/t
Gas is once again becoming the dominant support for European nitrogen pricing.
🔻 Dubai softened into month-end ⚠️ Inside-Hormuz VLCC freight remains roughly 2× Gulf of Oman 🔻 Atlantic tanker freight remains far below early-October highs 🔻 Heavy sour crude differentials remain under pressure 🔺 European diesel and naphtha tightened 🔺 Singapore 0.5%S fuel oil premium strengthened 🔺 Urea firmed as TTF approached €97/MWh